Soon Woo Kwon vs Tommy Paul — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
Soon Woo Kwon
KOR
Soon Woo Kwon
1745ELO
1589Grass ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1801Grass ELO
$1.4MYTD
$14MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWL
Kwon S.
vs
Paul T.

Soon Woo Kwon faces Tommy Paul in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Tommy Paul is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 210-point grass Elo advantage — but Soon Woo Kwon rides a 4-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Kwon S.11%
Paul T.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kwon S.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Paul T.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Grass Elo 1589
Surface ELO
7.6+212 Grass Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1745
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1948
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.15 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.3Won 72% in GBR (32)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kwon S.Stable
Paul T.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Kwon S.Paul T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
80%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
56%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.6
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kwon S.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Kwon S.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kwon S.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
93
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
99
Break points won·Dominant
33
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
77
98
Tiebreaks·Even
96
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kwon S.Paul T.
Freshness·Slight edge
73
83

Kwon S.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d) · Paul T.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-07-25AtlantaR16hardTommy Paul6-3 6-3
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersQ1hardTommy Paul6-3 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.
Pinnington Jones J.
6-3 2-3
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-4 4-6 5-7 1-2
Zheng M.
Norrie C.
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7.7-6.4 0-0
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-5
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
Fritz T.
Lajovic D.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
Moutet C.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
Sinner J.
Borges N.
Brooksby J.
Buse I.
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
Kwon S.
Paul T.
—
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
—
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
—
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
Tsitsipas S.
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