Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — US Open Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Round of 32
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 25 August 2025
hard
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Bublik A.
7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1
Paul T.
Bublik A.
776466563
Paul T.
657737712

Alexander Bublik defeated Tommy Paul 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1 in the US Open round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's round of 16. Alexander Bublik narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Alexander Bublik came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–7 6–3 6–7 6–1.

Head to head

1–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64hardTommy Paul5-7 7-5 6-4
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassTommy Paul6-3 6-4 6-2
2021-03-01RotterdamR16hardTommy Paul6-7(5) 6-3 6-1
2020-09-21HamburgQ2clayTommy Paul6-4 6-4
2019-06-17Queen's ClubQ2grassAlexander Bublik6-4 7-6(4)
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Paul T.
65
Serve
71
25
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.7
6.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.4
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 66). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
67
87
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Even
96
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.Paul T.
Freshness·Clear edge
66
84

Bublik A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d) · Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw

Final
Alcaraz C.
Sinner J.
6-23-66-16-4
Semi-finals
Sinner J.
Auger Aliassime F.
6-13-66-36-4
Alcaraz C.
Djokovic N.
6-47-646-2
Quarter-finals
Djokovic N.
Fritz T.
6-37-53-66-4
Auger Aliassime F.
De Minaur A.
4-67-677-57-64
Alcaraz C.
Lehecka J.
6-46-26-4
Sinner J.
Musetti L.
6-16-46-2
R16
Alcaraz C.
Rinderknech A.
7-636-36-4
Auger Aliassime F.
Rublev A.
7-56-36-4
De Minaur A.
Riedi L.
6-36-26-1
Djokovic N.
Struff J.
6-36-36-2
Fritz T.
Machac T.
6-46-36-3
Lehecka J.
Mannarino A.
7-646-42-66-2
Sinner J.
Bublik A.
6-16-16-1
Musetti L.
Munar J.
6-36-06-1
R32
Mannarino A.
Shelton B.
3-66-34-66-4
De Minaur A.
Altmaier D.
6-776-36-42-0
Musetti L.
Cobolli F.
6-36-22-0
Riedi L.
Majchrzak K.
5-3
Fritz T.
Kym J.
7-636-796-46-4
Struff J.
Tiafoe F.
6-46-37-67
Auger Aliassime F.
Zverev A.
4-67-676-46-4
Djokovic N.
Norrie C.
6-46-746-26-3
Rublev A.
Wong C.
2-66-46-34-66-3
Alcaraz C.
Darderi L.
6-26-46-0
Munar J.
Bergs Z.
6-16-46-4
Sinner J.
Shapovalov D.
5-76-46-36-3
Rinderknech A.
Bonzi B.
4-66-36-36-2
Machac T.
Blanchet U.
7-56-36-1
Bublik A.
Paul T.
7-656-746-36-756-1
Lehecka J.
Collignon R.
6-46-46-4
R64
Zverev A.
Fearnley J.
6-46-46-4
Bergs Z.
Draper J.
W/O
Rublev A.
Boyer T.
6-36-35-77-64
Munar J.
Diallo G.
7-56-37-5
Rinderknech A.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-43-62-66-26-3
Bonzi B.
Giron M.
2-64-67-56-36-4
Collignon R.
Ruud C.
6-43-63-66-47-5
Djokovic N.
Svajda Z.
6-756-36-36-1
Blanchet U.
Mensik J.
6-727-653-66-47-67
De Minaur A.
Mochizuki S.
6-26-46-2
Mannarino A.
Thompson J.
6-46-756-36-3
Shelton B.
Carreno Busta P.
6-46-26-4
Fritz T.
Harris L.
4-67-636-26-4
Kym J.
Nakashima B.
4-67-627-53-67-68
Sinner J.
Popyrin A.
6-36-26-2
Musetti L.
Goffin D.
6-46-06-2
Cobolli F.
Brooksby J.
5-76-36-42-67-63
Auger Aliassime F.
Safiullin R.
6-17-647-65
Darderi L.
Spizzirri E.
6-07-632-66-4
Wong C.
Walton A.
7-656-24-66-4
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
2-66-746-47-57-65
Riedi L.
Cerundolo F.
3-64-66-46-46-2
Altmaier D.
Tsitsipas S.
7-651-64-66-37-5
Norrie C.
Comesana F.
7-656-36-707-64
Struff J.
Rune H.
7-652-66-34-67-5
Machac T.
Fonseca J.
7-646-26-3
Paul T.
Borges N.
7-666-35-75-77-5
Lehecka J.
Etcheverry T.
3-66-06-26-4
Tiafoe F.
Damm M.
6-47-56-787-5
Shapovalov D.
Royer V.
7-663-67-646-3
Alcaraz C.
Bellucci M.
6-16-06-3
Bublik A.
Schoolkate T.
6-36-36-3
R128
Bellucci M.
Shang J.
7-601-66-33-0
Norrie C.
Korda S.
7-56-4
Sinner J.
Kopriva V.
6-16-16-2
Giron M.
Navone M.
6-07-54-65-76-4
Rinderknech A.
Carballes Baena R.
7-627-54-66-2
Ruud C.
Ofner S.
6-16-27-65
Davidovich Fokina A.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-16-2
Collignon R.
Galan D.
6-46-46-4
Harris L.
Baez S.
6-37-56-4
Darderi L.
Hijikata R.
6-26-16-2
Kym J.
Quinn E.
6-36-23-67-65
Cobolli F.
Passaro F.
7-54-66-43-66-3
Popyrin A.
Ruusuvuori E.
6-36-47-63
Royer V.
Yunchaokete B.
6-16-47-61
Svajda Z.
Piros Z.
6-46-27-5
Spizzirri E.
Dostanic S.
7-56-47-64
Bonzi B.
Medvedev D.
6-37-56-750-66-4
Etcheverry T.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-36-26-0
Bublik A.
Cilic M.
6-46-16-4
Schoolkate T.
Sonego L.
6-37-681-61-67-66
Borges N.
Holt B.
6-46-26-3
Paul T.
Moller E.
6-36-36-1
Musetti L.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-736-36-46-4
Goffin D.
Halys Q.
6-726-46-37-5
Brooksby J.
Vukic A.
6-36-746-43-66-4
Fearnley J.
Bautista Agut R.
7-56-25-76-4
Walton A.
Humbert U.
6-47-645-76-1
Wong C.
Kovacevic A.
6-47-57-64
Boyer T.
Duckworth J.
6-37-56-4
Altmaier D.
Medjedovic H.
7-56-737-676-756-4
Mochizuki S.
Gaston H.
6-46-36-4
Comesana F.
Michelsen A.
1-66-36-46-4
Struff J.
Mcdonald M.
3-67-646-36-3
Safiullin R.
Monfils G.
6-42-66-13-66-4
Zverev A.
Tabilo A.
6-27-646-4
Draper J.
Gomez F.
6-47-56-776-2
Bergs Z.
Tseng C.
6-36-46-3
Rune H.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-37-647-62
Munar J.
Faria J.
6-06-35-76-2
Diallo G.
Dzumhur D.
7-644-67-57-5
Shapovalov D.
Fucsovics M.
6-46-46-0
Khachanov K.
Basavareddy N.
6-756-37-56-1
Rublev A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-46-4
Mensik J.
Jarry N.
7-656-36-4
Fonseca J.
Kecmanovic M.
7-637-656-3
Auger Aliassime F.
Harris B.
6-47-686-4
Machac T.
Nardi L.
6-36-16-1
Majchrzak K.
Dellien H.
6-16-46-756-4
Lehecka J.
Coric B.
3-66-47-656-1
Mannarino A.
Griekspoor T.
7-56-46-0
Thompson J.
Moutet C.
6-26-41-66-3
De Minaur A.
Oconnell C.
6-36-46-4
Carreno Busta P.
Llamas Ruiz P.
7-676-46-2
Shelton B.
Buse I.
6-36-26-4
Fritz T.
Nava E.
7-56-26-3
Nakashima B.
De Jong J.
6-26-752-66-27-67
Blanchet U.
Marozsan F.
6-43-67-676-2
Damm M.
Blanch D.
6-36-46-4
Tiafoe F.
Nishioka Y.
6-37-666-3
Riedi L.
Martinez P.
6-46-26-3
Alcaraz C.
Opelka R.
6-47-56-4
Cerundolo F.
Arnaldi M.
3-62-67-56-46-3
Tsitsipas S.
Muller A.
4-66-06-17-65
Djokovic N.
Tien L.
6-17-636-2