Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Hubert Hurkacz
POL
Hubert Hurkacz
#96ATP
1798ELO
1700Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1801Grass ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
Hurkacz H.
vs
Paul T.

Hubert Hurkacz faces Tommy Paul in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 64.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Hurkacz H.17%
Paul T.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Hurkacz H.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Paul T.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1700
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Grass Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1798
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1948
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in GBR (22)
Country comfort
6.4Won 73% in GBR (33)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Hurkacz H.Rising
Paul T.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Hurkacz H.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
56%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
12.3
6.9
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Hurkacz H.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Hurkacz H.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
40
87
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
96
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Hurkacz H.Paul T.
Freshness·Even
81
78

Hurkacz H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Paul T.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

1–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-07Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-6(4) 6-3
2024-05-06Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-5 3-6 6-3
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersR32hardTommy Paul4-6 6-2 6-4
2021-11-01Paris MastersR32hardHubert Hurkacz7-5 7-6(4)
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-2 7.8-6.6 0-0
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-0 4-6 6-3 3-6 5-5
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Halys Q.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
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Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
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Medvedev D.
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Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
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Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
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