Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy PaulParis Masters Round of 32

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#68ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 1 November 2021
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Hurkacz H.
7-5 7-6
Paul T.
Hurkacz H.
7772
Paul T.
5640

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Tommy Paul 7-5 7-6 in the Paris Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 32. Hubert Hurkacz narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-03WimbledonR32grassHubert Hurkacz4-6 7.7-6.5 7-5 6-2
2025-05-07Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-6(4) 6-3
2024-05-06Rome MastersQFclayTommy Paul7-5 3-6 6-3
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersR32hardTommy Paul4-6 6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Hurkacz H.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Hurkacz H.Paul T.
67
Serve
71
0
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
14.0
6.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
40
87
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
97
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1727
Surface ELO
6.7+155 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1798
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
5.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
7.8
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
88

Hurkacz H.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
12°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 71%