Casper Ruud vs Hubert HurkaczWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#17ATP
1983ELO
1715Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWWW
0 — 3
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
No.3 Court · 2nd on
#69ATP
1798ELO
1700Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
Ruud C.
4-6 2-6 6-7
Hurkacz H.
Ruud C.
4260
Hurkacz H.
6673

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Casper Ruud in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. Hurkacz won in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6. He hit 15 aces to Ruud's 10 and converted 4 service breaks to Ruud's 1.

Key context

  • Match story: Hubert Hurkacz closed it out in three sets, 6–4 6–2 7–6.

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-27United CupRRhardCasper Ruud7-5 6-3
2024-04-08Monte Carlo MastersR16clayCasper Ruud6-4 6-2
2022-08-08Canada MastersSFhardHubert Hurkacz5-7 6-3 6-2
2022-05-23Roland GarrosR16clayCasper Ruud6-2 6-3 3-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
79%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
34%
Break points saved·Even
69%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
14.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
88
67
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
74
16
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
92
Tiebreaks·Even
95
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Ruud C.74%
Hurkacz H.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ruud C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+15 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1700
7.3Overall Elo 1983
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1798
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.34 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in United Kingdom (23)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
79

Ruud C.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw