Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet — Wimbledon Round of 128
Rinderknech A.
Arthur Rinderknech faces Oliver Tarvet in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Arthur Rinderknech is the paper favourite — ranked #28, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage — but Oliver Tarvet rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Rinderknech A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Arthur Rinderknech comes in with 10 days of rest and 26 games in 14d, vs Oliver Tarvet's 1 and 145.
- Stage: Arthur Rinderknech defends last year's round of 32; Oliver Tarvet defends last year's round of 64.
- Win streak: Oliver Tarvet arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadRinderknech A.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tarvet O.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.