Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Luca Van Assche
FRA
Luca Van Assche
#82ATP
1652ELO
1531Grass ELO
$376kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Marton Fucsovics
HUN
Marton Fucsovics
#76ATP
1763ELO
1710Grass ELO
$527kYTD
$8.6MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLWLW
Van Assche L.
vs
Fucsovics M.

Luca Van Assche faces Marton Fucsovics in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Marton Fucsovics is the paper favourite — ranked #76, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage — but Luca Van Assche rides a 5-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:22 UTC
Van Assche L.19%
Fucsovics M.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fucsovics M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Van Assche L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Fucsovics M.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.8Grass Elo 1531
Surface ELO
7.2+179 Grass Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1652
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1763
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
5.2Won 54% in GBR (28)
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Van Assche L.Stable
Fucsovics M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

36 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
Van Assche L.Fucsovics M.
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Van Assche L.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Fucsovics M.

Fucsovics M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Van Assche L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Van Assche L.Fucsovics M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
67
73
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
97
Break points won·Even
61
65
Deciding sets·Slight edge
79
87
Tiebreaks·Even
50
49

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Van Assche L.Fucsovics M.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
97

Van Assche L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d) · Fucsovics M.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.[21]
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.[26]
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.[28]
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.[13]
C. O'Connell[32]
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.[15]
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.[23]
6-16-722-63-6