Alex Michelsen vs Jacob FearnleyWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#41ATP
1825ELO
1710Grass ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 3
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 15 · 2nd on
#107ATP
1600ELO
1546Grass ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWWW
Michelsen A.
6-3 6-4 2-6 3-6 2-6
Fearnley J.
Michelsen A.
662322
Fearnley J.
346663

Jacob Fearnley defeated Alex Michelsen in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 in favor of Fearnley. He converted 46% of break points and secured 6 service breaks, compared to Michelsen's 3, en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
55%
Aces / match·Even
6.3
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
62
85
Break points saved·Even
92
96
Break points won·Dominant
32
70
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
99
Tiebreaks·Even
83
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Michelsen A.87%
Fearnley J.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Michelsen A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+164 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Grass Elo 1547
7.8Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1600
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.95 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
78

Michelsen A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: played today · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw