Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#76ATP
1759ELO
1496Grass ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Retired
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 9 · 2nd on
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#40ATP
1744ELO
1557Grass ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-4 6-3 2-6 0-3
Merida Aguilar D.
Ugo Carabelli C.
66202
Merida Aguilar D.
43631

Daniel Merida Aguilar defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 128 at Wimbledon. The match ended with Ugo Carabelli's retirement, at which point Merida Aguilar led 4-6, 3-6, 6-2, 3-0.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.Merida Aguilar D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ugo Carabelli C.Merida Aguilar D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
50
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
64
Break points won·Slight edge
41
46
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
3
49

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Ugo Carabelli C.36%
Merida Aguilar D.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Merida Aguilar D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ugo Carabelli C.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Merida Aguilar D.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1496
Surface ELO
5.7+60 Grass Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1742
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.00 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ugo Carabelli C.Merida Aguilar D.
Freshness·Dominant
95
65

Ugo Carabelli C.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw