Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev — Wimbledon Round of 64
RUS8
Merida Aguilar D.
Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 300-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in with 16 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Daniil Medvedev's 10 and 72.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Daniil Medvedev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 96 vs 55).
- Last match: Daniel Merida Aguilar advanced when Camilo Ugo Carabelli retired.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMerida Aguilar D.: 16 days rest · Medvedev D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.