Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Roman Safiullin
RUS
Roman Safiullin
#132ATP
1732ELO
1618Grass ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWLL
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Joao Fonseca
BRA
Joao Fonseca
#27ATP
1928ELO
1686Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWWLL
Safiullin R.
vs
Fonseca J.

Roman Safiullin faces Joao Fonseca in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Joao Fonseca is the paper favourite — ranked #27, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage — but Roman Safiullin rides a 5-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Safiullin R.18%
Fonseca J.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fonseca J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Safiullin R.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Fonseca J.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Grass Elo 1618
Surface ELO
5.9+68 Grass Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1732
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1928
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.87 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Safiullin R.Stable
Fonseca J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Safiullin R.Fonseca J.
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
56%
Service points won·Even
63%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
5.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Safiullin R.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Fonseca J.

Fonseca J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Safiullin R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Safiullin R.Fonseca J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
67
76
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Even
44
43
Deciding sets·Clear edge
73
89
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Safiullin R.Fonseca J.
Freshness·Dominant
48
83

Safiullin R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 134 games (7d) · Fonseca J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
3-6 4-1
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
6-4 6.6-7.8 4-5
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
7.7-6.2 6-3 0-1
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Halys Q.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
—
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
—
Medvedev D.
—
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
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