Gabriel Diallo vs Lorenzo Sonego — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
Gabriel Diallo
CAN
Gabriel Diallo
#88ATP
1693ELO
1628Grass ELO
$480kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 203 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLLLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
Lorenzo Sonego
ITA
Lorenzo Sonego
#69ATP
1715ELO
1635Grass ELO
$423kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWLWLL
Diallo G.
vs
Sonego L.

Gabriel Diallo faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Lorenzo Sonego holds the paper edge — ranked #69, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Diallo G.46%
Sonego L.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Diallo G.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Sonego L.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1628
Surface ELO
5.1+7 Grass Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1692
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1715
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.45 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.1Won 52% in GBR (23)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Diallo G.Rising
Sonego L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

16 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
Diallo G.Sonego L.
1st serve in·Even
68%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
4.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Diallo G.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sonego L.

Sonego L.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Diallo G.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Diallo G.Sonego L.
Clutch Rating·Even
65
68
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Clear edge
24
45
Deciding sets·Clear edge
89
68
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
71
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Diallo G.Sonego L.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
83

Diallo G.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Sonego L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AucklandR32hardLorenzo Sonego7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.
6-16-753-60-0
Mensik J.
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.
Atmane T.
7-666-14-60-0
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-50-0
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.
Borges N.
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Mannarino A.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
Duckworth J.
—
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Fritz T.
Kypson P.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
—
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
—
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Halys Q.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Zverev A.
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