Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo SonegoCanada Masters Round of 32

Canada Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 27 July 2025
hard
#83ATP
1719ELO
1702Hard ELO
$435kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLLWL
Rublev A.
5-7 6-4 6-3
Sonego L.
Rublev A.
5662
Sonego L.
7431

Andrey Rublev defeated Lorenzo Sonego 5-7 6-4 6-3 in the Canada Masters round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's final. Andrey Rublev extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

32
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13BarcelonaR16clayAndrey Rublev6-2 6-3
2024-11-04MetzR16hardAndrey Rublev7-6(3) 7-5
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR32clayLorenzo Sonego5-7 0-6 6-3 7-6(5) 6-3
2021-05-10Rome MastersQFclayLorenzo Sonego3-6 6-4 6-3
2020-10-26ViennaFhardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Sonego L.

Sonego L.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.Sonego L.
55
Serve
41
52
Return
38

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.5
6.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 58). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
89
69
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
72
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
71
Tiebreaks·Even
92
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+147 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1702
6.7Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1719
10.0
H2H
0.0
4.5
Surface form
3.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.5
Minutes 14d
8.7
4.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
70

Rublev A.: 15 days rest · Sonego L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 55%