Jesper De Jong vs Joao Fonseca — Wimbledon

Wimbledon · ATP
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#73ATP
1707ELO
1535Grass ELO
$609kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Joao Fonseca
BRA
Joao Fonseca
#27ATP
1928ELO
1686Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWWLLW
De Jong J.
vs
Fonseca J.

Jesper De Jong faces Joao Fonseca in the Wimbledon match on grass. Joao Fonseca holds the paper edge — ranked #27, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 150-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC
De Jong J.14%
Fonseca J.86%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Fonseca J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Fonseca J.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Grass Elo 1534
Surface ELO
6.9+152 Grass Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1707
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1928
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.24 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Jong J.Rising
Fonseca J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Fonseca J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.4
5.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Jong J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Fonseca J.

Fonseca J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Fonseca J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
54
76
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Slight edge
37
43
Deciding sets·Clear edge
65
89
Tiebreaks·Dominant
51
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Fonseca J.
Freshness·Clear edge
98
79

De Jong J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Fonseca J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.
Harris B.
6-3 4-4
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
Navone M.
Cobolli F.
Mensik J.
Samuel T.
5-7 4-3
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
Collignon R.
Fils A.
Humbert U.
Bergs Z.
2-6 5-7 6-4 0-0
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.
6-4 3-6 6.8-7.10 6-2 2-2
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-6 6-1 1-0
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.
2-3
Tiafoe F.
Atmane T.
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-3 6-4 4-2
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.
6-4 3-6 6.5-6.4
Lehecka J.
Popyrin A.
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-3 6-4 2-6 3-6 1-5
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.
6-1 6-4 4-2
Arnaldi M.
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
1-1
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
De Minaur A.
Mannarino A.
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Majchrzak K.
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Hanfmann Y.
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Faria J.
Fery A.
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Diallo G.
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Halys Q.
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Royer V.
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