Nicolas Mejia vs Michael Zheng — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
Nicolas Mejia
COL
Nicolas Mejia
#165ATP
1483ELO
1445Grass ELO
$141kYTD
$522kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
USA
Michael Zheng
#144ATP
1646ELO
1490Grass ELO
$307kYTD
$500kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLWWW
Mejia N.
vs
Zheng M.

Nicolas Mejia faces Michael Zheng in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Michael Zheng is the paper favourite — ranked #144, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage — but Nicolas Mejia arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on grass to Michael Zheng's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC
Mejia N.22%
Zheng M.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zheng M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mejia N.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Zheng M.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1445
Surface ELO
5.6+45 Grass Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1482
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1646
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.15 of last 8 on grass
Surface form
6.64 of last 7 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mejia N.Sliding
Zheng M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Mejia N.Zheng M.
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mejia N.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Zheng M.

Zheng M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mejia N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Mejia N.Zheng M.
Freshness·Even
73
73

Mejia N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d) · Zheng M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-654-3
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-63-5
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
Khachanov K.
Harris B.
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
Fritz T.[6]
Lajovic D.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
Moutet C.
Giron M.
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
—
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
—
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—