Alex De Minaur vs Zachary Svajda — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Alex De Minaur
AUS5
Alex De Minaur
#8ATP
1961ELO
1834Grass ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWLW
3 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
No.3 Court · 1st on
Zachary Svajda
USA
Zachary Svajda
#84ATP
1718ELO
1657Grass ELO
$631kYTD
$1.9MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWWLW
De Minaur A.
6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4
Svajda Z.
De Minaur A.
65663
Svajda Z.
27241

Alex De Minaur defeated Zachary Svajda in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 in favor of De Minaur. De Minaur converted 44% of his break points and secured 8 service breaks, compared to Svajda's 36% conversion rate and 4 service breaks.

Around the match

  • “The contrast from the first to the second was pretty big, he started being a lot more aggressive. The way he stepped it up made me probably take a step back.”

    De Minaur A.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “The body is feeling great — today was probably the best I've moved around the court. This is when I'm my most dangerous, and I'm hoping I can put two and two together.”

    De Minaur A.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex De Minaur closed it out in four sets, 6–2 5–7 6–2 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Svajda Z.
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.0
7.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Svajda Z.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
22
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
81
Break points won·Dominant
97
58
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
6
Tiebreaks·Dominant
98
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
De Minaur A.84%
Svajda Z.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Svajda Z.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+156 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Grass Elo 1677
7.9Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1730
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.3Won 72% in United Kingdom (39)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Svajda Z.
Freshness·Clear edge
72
89

De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Svajda Z.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw