Jan Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Jan Lennard Struff
GER
Jan Lennard Struff
#74ATP
1692ELO
1623Grass ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLWLL
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Daniil Medvedev
RUS
Daniil Medvedev
#9ATP
1977ELO
1855Grass ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLL
Struff J.
vs
Medvedev D.

Jan Lennard Struff faces Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 8–1, defending last year's round of 128. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Struff J.11%
Medvedev D.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Struff J.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Medvedev D.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Grass Elo 1623
Surface ELO
7.9+232 Grass Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1692
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1977
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.0Won 50% in GBR (22)
Country comfort
6.3Won 72% in GBR (39)
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Struff J.Stable
Medvedev D.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Struff J.Medvedev D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
42%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Even
7.6
7.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Struff J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Serve advantage — Medvedev D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Struff J.Medvedev D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
60
96
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
21
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
65
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Struff J.Medvedev D.
Freshness·Slight edge
67
61

Struff J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 50 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

1–8
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-24DubaiR32hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 7-6(4)
2025-02-10MarseilleQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-2
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassDaniil Medvedev6-1 6-3 4-6 7-6(3)
2021-12-04Davis Cup Finals SF: RTF vs GERRRhardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-1 4-6 7-6(3)
2021-06-14HalleR32grassJan Lennard Struff7-6(6) 6-3
2019-08-12Cincinnati MastersR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 6-1
2017-02-20MarseilleR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-3 3-6 7-6(3)
2016-07-11HamburgR32clayDaniil Medvedev6-4 5-7 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
6-3 2-0
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
6.4-7.7 4-3
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
6-4 7-5 0-0
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-6 4-5
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.
1-6 3-6 3-4
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
De Minaur A.
Svajda Z.
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Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
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Giron M.
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