Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Grigor Dimitrov
BUL
Grigor Dimitrov
#146ATP
1754ELO
1662Grass ELO
$307kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLL
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Matteo Berrettini
ITA
Matteo Berrettini
#51ATP
1831ELO
1739Grass ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWL
Dimitrov G.
vs
Berrettini M.

Grigor Dimitrov faces Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Matteo Berrettini holds the paper edge — ranked #51, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC
Dimitrov G.27%
Berrettini M.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Berrettini M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dimitrov G.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Berrettini M.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.0Grass Elo 1662
Surface ELO
6.0+77 Grass Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1754
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1831
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.8Won 64% in GBR (78)
Country comfort
6.9Won 81% in GBR (32)
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Dimitrov G.Rising
Berrettini M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Dimitrov G.Berrettini M.
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
31%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.3
6.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dimitrov G.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Berrettini M.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Dimitrov G.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Dimitrov G.Berrettini M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
82
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Clear edge
66
53
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
92
Tiebreaks·Even
95
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Dimitrov G.Berrettini M.
Freshness·Even
72
68

Dimitrov G.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Berrettini M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-10-21ViennaR16hardMatteo Berrettini7-6(5) 7-6(1)
2019-04-15Monte Carlo MastersR64clayGrigor Dimitrov7-5 6-4
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
Rinderknech A.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Svajda Z.
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
Giron M.
Zverev A.
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