Karen Khachanov vs Flavio CobolliWimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
#39ATP
1828ELO
1725Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWW
2 — 3
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 2nd on
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLWWWL
Khachanov K.
6-0 6-7 7-6 2-6 2-6
Cobolli F.
Khachanov K.
667222
Cobolli F.
076663

Flavio Cobolli defeated Karen Khachanov in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon. The match ended with a score of 0-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2, 6-2. Cobolli converted 40% of his break points, compared to Khachanov's 19%, and broke Khachanov's serve four times to Khachanov's three.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-22Madrid MastersR32clayKaren Khachanov7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.3
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
75
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Dominant
81
38
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Khachanov K.41%
Cobolli F.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cobolli F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1725
Surface ELO
5.2+17 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1828
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1896
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.08 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 69% in United Kingdom (29)
Country comfort
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
82
67

Khachanov K.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw