Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 32
Karen Khachanov
RUS
Karen Khachanov
#22ATP
1828ELO
1725Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLWLW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Flavio Cobolli
ITA
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWWWL
Khachanov K.
vs
Cobolli F.

Karen Khachanov faces Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Flavio Cobolli is the paper favourite — ranked #10, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 20-point grass Elo advantage — but Karen Khachanov has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Khachanov K.41%
Cobolli F.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cobolli F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Serve & return: Karen Khachanov brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 60), Flavio Cobolli the stronger return game (Return Rating 38).
  • Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Head-to-head: Karen Khachanov leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Madrid Masters 2024.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Khachanov K.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Cobolli F.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1725
Surface ELO
5.2+17 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1828
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1896
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 69% in GBR (29)
Country comfort
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Khachanov K.Stable
Cobolli F.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Khachanov K.Cobolli F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
33%
36%
Break points saved·Even
68%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.5
6.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Khachanov K.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Khachanov K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Khachanov K.Cobolli F.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
76
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
81
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
84
98
Tiebreaks·Even
92
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Khachanov K.Cobolli F.
Freshness·Slight edge
75
69

Khachanov K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-22Madrid MastersR32clayKaren Khachanov7-5 6-4
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.
Brooksby J.
Jodar R.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.
Struff J.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Fucsovics M.
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
Rinderknech A.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Svajda Z.
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
Giron M.
Zverev A.
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