Alex De Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Alex De Minaur
AUS5
Alex De Minaur
#8ATP
1961ELO
1834Grass ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWW
0 — 3
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
Flavio Cobolli
ITA9
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLWWWL
De Minaur A.
5-7 6-7 3-6
Cobolli F.
De Minaur A.
5630
Cobolli F.
7763

Flavio Cobolli advanced to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon with a straight-sets victory over Alex De Minaur in the Round of 16. Cobolli won 7-5, 7-6, 6-3. He converted 6 service breaks to De Minaur's 4, and had a higher first-serve win percentage, 77 to 68.

Around the match

  • “It's a lot of respect. I love him, like a guy. I love how he plays, I don't love to play against him.”

    Cobolli F.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Flavio Cobolli closed it out in three sets, 7–5 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-21ViennaR16hardAlex De Minaur7-6 3-1
2024-01-15Australian OpenR32hardAlex De Minaur6-3 6-3 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
1st serve in·Even
58%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
6.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
75
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Dominant
97
38
Deciding sets·Even
95
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
De Minaur A.65%
Cobolli F.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · De Minaur A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Cobolli F.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+92 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1742
5.8Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1896
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.3Won 72% in United Kingdom (40)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
Freshness·Slight edge
66
55

De Minaur A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 92 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 24%

Draw