Alex De Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 16
Alex De Minaur
AUS
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1834Grass ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
Flavio Cobolli
ITA
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWWWW
De Minaur A.
vs
Cobolli F.

Alex De Minaur faces Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 16. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC
De Minaur A.65%
Cobolli F.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · De Minaur A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Cobolli F.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+92 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1742
5.8Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1896
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.9Won 65% in GBR (40)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Minaur A.Rising
Cobolli F.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
1st serve in·Even
58%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
67%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
6.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.7
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
95
76
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
97
35
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Cobolli F.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
57

De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-21ViennaR16hardAlex De Minaur7-6(2) 3-1 RET
2024-01-15Australian OpenR32hardAlex De Minaur6-3 6-3 6-1
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.
Cobolli F.
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.
Bublik A.
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.
Mochizuki S.
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Cobolli F.
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
Bublik A.
Lehecka J.
Zverev A.
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