Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De MinaurTour Finals Round Robin

Tour Finals · ATP · Round Robin
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 9 November 2025
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Musetti L.
7-5 3-6 7-5
De Minaur A.
Musetti L.
7372
De Minaur A.
5651

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alex De Minaur 7-5 3-6 7-5 in the Tour Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, defending last year's round-robin. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Lorenzo Musetti closed it out in three sets, 7–5 3–6 7–5.

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayLorenzo Musetti6-4 6-2
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersSFclayLorenzo Musetti1-6 6-4 7-6(4)
2024-06-17Queen's ClubR32grassLorenzo Musetti1-6 6-4 6-2
2022-01-17Australian OpenR128hardAlex De Minaur3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Musetti L.De Minaur A.
54
Serve
48
62
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
57%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
95
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Clear edge
82
97
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1804
Surface ELO
5.6+132 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1961
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.1
Surface form
6.9
Fatigue & Travel
3.2
Minutes 14d
6.3
0.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
77

De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast