Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De MinaurMonte Carlo Masters Semi-final

Monte Carlo Masters · ATP · Semi-final
#15ATP
1869ELO
1853Clay ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 April 2025
clay
#6ATP
1961ELO
1869Clay ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Musetti L.
1-6 6-4 7-6
De Minaur A.
Musetti L.
16772
De Minaur A.
64641

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alex De Minaur 1-6 6-4 7-6 in the Monte Carlo Masters semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, defending last year's quarter-final. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardLorenzo Musetti7-5 3-6 7-5
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayLorenzo Musetti6-4 6-2
2024-06-17Queen's ClubR32grassLorenzo Musetti1-6 6-4 6-2
2022-01-17Australian OpenR128hardAlex De Minaur3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Musetti L.De Minaur A.
35
Serve
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
57%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (80 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
95
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Clear edge
82
97
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9Clay Elo 1853
Surface ELO
4.1+17 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1961
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.3
Surface form
7.3
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
73

De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
15°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 46%
Semi-finals
Musetti L.[13]
De Minaur A.[8]
1-66-47-64
Alcaraz C.[2]
Davidovich Fokina A.
7-626-4