Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Quarter-final
Flavio Cobolli
ITA
Flavio Cobolli
#10ATP
1896ELO
1742Grass ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
GBR
Arthur Fery
#114ATP
1721ELO
1593Grass ELO
$329kYTD
$868kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWWL
Cobolli F.
vs
Fery A.

Flavio Cobolli faces Arthur Fery in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Flavio Cobolli is the paper favourite — ranked #10, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 150-point grass Elo advantage — but Arthur Fery has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC
Cobolli F.80%
Fery A.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Cobolli F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Flavio Cobolli comes in with 2 days of rest and 132 games in 14d, vs Arthur Fery's 2 and 180.
  • Head-to-head: Arthur Fery leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Australian Open 2026.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cobolli F.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Fery A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+150 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Grass Elo 1592
7.2Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1721
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
7.4Home country · 8/14 here
Context
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Cobolli F.Stable
Fery A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Cobolli F.Fery A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cobolli F.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Fery A.

Fery A.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cobolli F.Fery A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
58
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
85
Break points won·Even
35
33
Deciding sets·Even
98
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cobolli F.Fery A.
Freshness·Even
47
46

Cobolli F.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 132 games (7d) · Fery A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 129 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128hardArthur Fery7-6(1) 6-4 6-1
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.[6]
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.[17]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.[2]
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.[1]
Mochizuki S.
6-37-606-3
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
6-37-656-725-72-4
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
6-747-666-36-726-1
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.[7]
6-763-66-33-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Cobolli F.[9]
5-76-743-6
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
5-76-36-44-66-77
Fritz T.
Bublik A.
7-616-46-4
Lehecka J.
Zverev A.
4-65-73-3
Sinner J.
Struff J.
Auger Aliassime F.
Djokovic N.
Cobolli F.
Fery A.
Fritz T.
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