Arthur Fery vs Alexander Zverev — Wimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Semi-final
GBR
Arthur Fery
#114ATP
1721ELO
1593Grass ELO
$329kYTD
$868kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
Alexander Zverev
GER
Alexander Zverev
#3ATP
2100ELO
1914Grass ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
Fery A.
vs
Zverev A.

Arthur Fery faces Alexander Zverev in the Wimbledon semi-final on grass. Alexander Zverev holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 320-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Fery A.8%
Zverev A.92%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Zverev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fery A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Zverev A.
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.0Grass Elo 1592
Surface ELO
9.0+321 Grass Elo edge
0.3Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
9.7Overall Elo 2100
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.48 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
7.6Home country · 9/15 here
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in GBR (30)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Fery A.Stable
Zverev A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Fery A.Zverev A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.4
9.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fery A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Zverev A.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Fery A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fery A.Zverev A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
60
94
Break points saved·Clear edge
85
100
Break points won·Dominant
33
90
Deciding sets·Even
96
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
40
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fery A.Zverev A.
Freshness·Slight edge
40
48

Fery A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 151 games (7d) · Zverev A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 104 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
31°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 34%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.[30]
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.[19]
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-66-45-74-6
Navone M.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-16-753-66-78
Mensik J.[15]
Samuel T.
5-76-36-33-67-67
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
6-743-65-7
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
7-676-7166-776-75
Collignon R.
Fils A.[20]
5-71-63-6
Humbert U.[27]
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.[4]
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-46-46-727-64
Tiafoe F.[17]
Atmane T.
7-666-14-66-4
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
3-65-72-6
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.[10]
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Popyrin A.
6-46-26-4
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-56-2
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.[32]
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-44-65-74-6
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.[2]
4-67-686-756-70
Sinner J.[1]
Borges N.
7-647-626-4
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
6-26-26-3
Jodar R.[23]
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-31-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
6-27-667-5
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
7-686-46-4
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
3-66-742-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Struff J.
6-46-766-757-666-77
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.[8]
6-33-65-72-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Prizmic D.
7-626-37-5
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
7-646-781-64-6
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Marozsan F.
6-36-06-3
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
6-766-47-646-3
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-04-66-33-67-65
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[24]
1-65-74-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Damm M.
6-47-616-3
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.[7]
3-64-62-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Mannarino A.
6-36-26-2
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
2-66-26-756-46-3
Khachanov K.[19]
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-46-4
Duckworth J.
Cobolli F.[9]
6-746-36-731-6
Mensik J.[15]
Dimitrov G.
6-756-45-73-6
Berrettini M.
Fils A.[20]
6-47-53-66-3
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
7-664-66-26-3
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
5-77-636-36-3
Fritz T.[6]
Kypson P.
6-26-27-5
Diallo G.
Sonego L.
6-746-46-747-662-6
Tiafoe F.[17]
Choinski J.
4-66-27-56-2
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.[10]
3-64-66-75
Lehecka J.[13]
Molcan A.
6-36-26-4
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
4-66-734-6
Halys Q.
Giron M.
6-753-64-6
Royer V.
Zverev A.[2]
1-63-66-73
Sinner J.[1]
Brooksby J.
6-46-36-4
Jodar R.[23]
Mochizuki S.
6-16-754-64-6
Hurkacz H.
Paul T.[21]
4-67-657-56-2
Struff J.
Medvedev D.[8]
7-647-657-5
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Zheng M.
7-616-26-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Fucsovics M.
7-636-26-3
Safiullin R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-36-36-3
Rinderknech A.[25]
Djokovic N.[7]
5-74-66-16-74
De Minaur A.[5]
Svajda Z.
6-25-76-26-4
Khachanov K.[19]
Cobolli F.[9]
6-06-747-652-62-6
Dimitrov G.
Berrettini M.
6-36-43-65-76-3
Bergs Z.
Fery A.
6-25-76-26-736-75
Fritz T.[6]
Sonego L.
4-66-36-47-65
Tiafoe F.[17]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-756-7116-43-6
Lehecka J.[13]
Munar J.
6-46-44-66-4
Giron M.
Zverev A.[2]
2-66-744-6
Sinner J.[1]
Mochizuki S.
6-37-606-3
Hurkacz H.
Struff J.
6-37-656-725-72-4
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
6-747-666-36-726-1
Safiullin R.
Djokovic N.[7]
6-763-66-33-6
De Minaur A.[5]
Cobolli F.[9]
5-76-743-6
Dimitrov G.
Fery A.
5-76-36-44-66-77
Fritz T.[6]
Bublik A.[10]
7-616-46-4
Lehecka J.[13]
Zverev A.[2]
4-65-76-36-76
Sinner J.[1]
Struff J.
7-57-646-3
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Djokovic N.[7]
6-7106-33-67-646-74
Cobolli F.[9]
Fery A.
4-66-740-6
Fritz T.
Zverev A.
4-64-62-6
Sinner J.[1]
Djokovic N.[7]
Fery A.
Zverev A.
—