Alex De Minaur vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Shanghai Masters Round of 64

Shanghai Masters · ATP · Round of 64
Alex De Minaur
AUS7
Alex De Minaur
#5ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 1 October 2025
hard
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#58ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
De Minaur A.
6-4 6-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
De Minaur A.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
420

Alex De Minaur defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-4 6-2 in the Shanghai Masters round of 64 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Ugo Carabelli C.
48
Serve
0
80
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
95
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
90
Break points won·Dominant
97
62
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Ugo Carabelli C.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.8+294 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.2Hard Elo 1642
7.8Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
3.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.2
Minutes 14d
7.9
4.0
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·Clear edge
83
100

De Minaur A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 62%
Final
Vacherot V.
Rinderknech A.
4-66-36-3
Semi-finals
Vacherot V.
Djokovic N.[4]
6-36-4
Rinderknech A.
Medvedev D.[16]
4-66-26-4
Quarter-finals
Medvedev D.[16]
De Minaur A.[7]
6-46-4
Vacherot V.
Rune H.[10]
2-67-646-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Bergs Z.
6-37-5
Rinderknech A.
Auger Aliassime F.[12]
6-36-4
R16
Vacherot V.
Griekspoor T.[27]
4-67-616-4
Rune H.[10]
Mpetshi Perricard G.[32]
6-46-776-3
Bergs Z.
Diallo G.[31]
3-67-57-68
Rinderknech A.
Lehecka J.[15]
6-37-65
Auger Aliassime F.[12]
Musetti L.[8]
6-46-2
Djokovic N.[4]
Munar J.
6-35-76-2
De Minaur A.[7]
Borges N.
7-56-2
Medvedev D.[16]
Tien L.
7-666-716-4
R32
Diallo G.[31]
Goffin D.
3-0
Mpetshi Perricard G.[32]
Fritz T.[5]
6-47-5
Griekspoor T.[27]
Sinner J.[2]
6-737-53-2
Vacherot V.
Machac T.[20]
6-03-1
Djokovic N.[4]
Hanfmann Y.
4-67-56-3
Lehecka J.[15]
Shapovalov D.[23]
6-46-4
Bergs Z.
Cerundolo F.[19]
7-616-3
Borges N.
Shang J.
7-654-66-3
Munar J.
Nishioka Y.
6-45-76-1
Auger Aliassime F.[12]
De Jong J.
6-47-5
Rinderknech A.
Zverev A.[3]
4-66-36-2
Tien L.
Norrie C.[30]
7-646-3
Rune H.[10]
Humbert U.[21]
6-46-4
Musetti L.[8]
Darderi L.[26]
7-57-61
Medvedev D.[16]
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
6-37-65
De Minaur A.[7]
Majchrzak K.
6-17-5
R64
Bergs Z.
Ruud C.[11]
3-67-54-1
Cerundolo F.[19]
Mannarino A.
7-637-64
Darderi L.[26]
Yunchaokete B.
6-46-4
Nishioka Y.
Rublev A.[13]
2-66-16-4
Fritz T.[5]
Marozsan F.
2-67-647-61
Djokovic N.[4]
Cilic M.
7-626-4
Griekspoor T.[27]
Brooksby J.
6-11-66-1
Auger Aliassime F.[12]
Tabilo A.
6-36-3
Shapovalov D.[23]
Oconnell C.
6-36-2
Shang J.
Khachanov K.[9]
7-636-3
Diallo G.[31]
Bonzi B.
6-46-4
Borges N.
Vukic A.
7-676-4
Vacherot V.
Bublik A.[14]
3-66-36-4
Hanfmann Y.
Tiafoe F.[25]
6-796-26-1
Sinner J.[2]
Altmaier D.
6-36-3
Mpetshi Perricard G.[32]
Nardi L.
6-37-64
Majchrzak K.
Nakashima B.[29]
6-46-0
Lehecka J.[15]
Halys Q.
6-47-5
Rune H.[10]
Baez S.
7-56-4
Rinderknech A.
Michelsen A.[28]
6-36-4
De Jong J.
Mensik J.[17]
4-67-626-4
Medvedev D.[16]
Svrcina D.
6-16-1
Tien L.
Moutet C.
4-66-46-4
Humbert U.[21]
Thompson J.
6-37-64
Machac T.[20]
Bellucci M.
6-36-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-4
De Minaur A.[7]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-46-2
Norrie C.[30]
Cazaux A.
6-30-67-65
Musetti L.[8]
Comesana F.
6-46-0
Goffin D.
Shelton B.[6]
6-26-4
Munar J.
Cobolli F.[22]
7-56-1
Zverev A.[3]
Royer V.
6-46-4
R128
Bonzi B.
Opelka R.
7-626-4
Svrcina D.
Wu Y.
7-50-0
Rinderknech A.
Medjedovic H.
6-731-0
Borges N.
Van De Zandschulp B.
7-657-65
Vacherot V.
Djere L.
6-36-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Atmane T.
4-4
De Jong J.
Zhou Y.
6-716-27-63
Mannarino A.
Berrettini M.
7-57-65
Baez S.
Zhang Z.
2-66-36-4
Yunchaokete B.
Cerundolo J.
6-36-756-3
Shang J.
Kovacevic A.
6-43-66-3
Royer V.
Navone M.
3-66-46-4
Goffin D.
Muller A.
6-766-16-1
Tien L.
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-4
Cazaux A.
Martinez P.
6-33-67-5
Hanfmann Y.
Sonego L.
2-66-36-1
Oconnell C.
Dzumhur D.
6-26-4
Cilic M.
Basilashvili N.
6-37-65
Thompson J.
Holmgren A.
4-66-36-4
Marozsan F.
Wawrinka S.
6-14-66-4
Munar J.
Fucsovics M.
4-67-56-1
Bellucci M.
Walton A.
7-666-1
Tabilo A.
Giron M.
6-46-3
Halys Q.
Mcdonald M.
6-36-2
Majchrzak K.
Quinn E.
6-36-4
Arnaldi M.
Sakamoto R.
7-636-4
Nishioka Y.
Shevchenko A.
6-16-2
Altmaier D.
Schoolkate T.
6-36-4
Comesana F.
Blanchet U.
6-46-2
Brooksby J.
Trotter J.
7-626-1
Nardi L.
Ofner S.
3-66-36-2
Bergs Z.
Korda S.
6-47-5