Alex De Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 64
Alex De Minaur
AUS
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1834Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Adrian Mannarino
FRA
Adrian Mannarino
#40ATP
1680ELO
1667Grass ELO
$589kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWWLL
De Minaur A.
vs
Mannarino A.

Alex De Minaur faces Adrian Mannarino in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
De Minaur A.88%
Mannarino A.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mannarino A.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.1+166 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Grass Elo 1667
8.5Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
1.5Overall Elo 1680
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.8Won 63% in GBR (38)
Country comfort
5.5Won 59% in GBR (58)
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Minaur A.Rising
Mannarino A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Mannarino A.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
48%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
5.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Mannarino A.

Mannarino A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Mannarino A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
67
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
97
66
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
74
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Mannarino A.
Freshness·Even
94
92

De Minaur A.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Mannarino A.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

5–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-13s HertogenboschSFgrassAlex De Minaur4-6 0-6
2023-06-19Queen's ClubQFgrassAlex De Minaur6-4 4-6 6-4
2023-01-16Australian OpenR64hardAlex De Minaur7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 6-1
2022-07-25AtlantaQFhardAlex De Minaur4-6 6-3 6-0
2022-06-06s HertogenboschR16grassAdrian Mannarino6-2 6-3
2019-09-23ZhuhaiFhardAlex De Minaur7-6(4) 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sinner J.[1]
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-766-26-3
Borges N.
Boyer T.
6-37-57-5
Vukic A.
Brooksby J.
6-771-61-6
Nava E.
Buse I.[31]
6-736-35-70-6
Jodar R.[23]
Gill F.
6-36-37-5
Shapovalov D.
Carreno Busta P.
3-66-770-0
Mochizuki S.
Basing M.
6-36-06-0
Quinn E.
Darderi L.[14]
7-677-56-2
Ruud C.[11]
Hurkacz H.
4-62-66-77
Medjedovic H.
Ofner S.
6-12-66-43-64-6
Kwon S.
Landaluce M.
6-46-36-3
Muller A.
Paul T.[21]
1-62-61-6
Nakashima B.[28]
Pinnington Jones J.
6-37-657-5
Struff J.
Baez S.
6-17-644-62-67-5
Ugo Carabelli C.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-46-32-60-3
Cilic M.
Medvedev D.[8]
1-62-64-6
Auger Aliassime F.[3]
Shevchenko A.
6-36-16-4
Walton A.
Prizmic D.
6-46-734-62-6
Vallejo A.
Mejia N.
6-44-65-76-72
Zheng M.
Norrie C.[26]
6-776-26-726-37-64
Davidovich Fokina A.[22]
Cerundolo J.
6-46-47-62
Tirante T.
Marozsan F.
5-73-64-6
Van Assche L.
Fucsovics M.
3-60-4
Svrcina D.
Tien L.[16]
1-64-67-643-6
Rublev A.[12]
Safiullin R.
4-67-666-33-66-712
Kovacevic A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
3-67-624-60-6
De Jong J.
Hijikata R.
7-643-65-76-46-3
Bautista Agut R.
Fonseca J.[24]
6-744-63-6
Rinderknech A.[25]
Tarvet O.
7-647-644-67-5
Trungelliti M.
Damm M.
6-757-656-726-75
Gaston H.
Tsitsipas S.
1-64-62-6
Wu Y.
Djokovic N.[7]
4-67-54-64-6
De Minaur A.
Burruchaga R.
7-656-16-0
Mannarino A.
Droguet T.
6-26-46-1
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
Majchrzak K.
Tabilo A.
6-37-57-5
Khachanov K.
Harris B.
6-35-76-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-767-696-26-3
Griekspoor T.
Duckworth J.
4-6 4-4
Navone M.
Cobolli F.
Mensik J.
Samuel T.
5-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 3-3
Sweeny D.
Dimitrov G.
Wawrinka S.
Berrettini M.
1-1
Collignon R.
Fils A.
5-7 1-6 2-4
Humbert U.
Bergs Z.
2-65-76-46-33-6
Shimabukuro S.
Faria J.
6-763-67-623-6
Dzumhur D.
Fery A.
6-32-62-61-6
Virtanen O.
Shelton B.
6-43-66-786-27-69
Fritz T.[6]
Draper J.
Kypson P.
Mcdonald M.
3-66-16-46-4
Bonzi B.
Diallo G.
6-16-46-753-61-3
Sonego L.
Etcheverry T.
6-4 6-4 3-4
Tiafoe F.
Atmane T.
Kopriva V.
Choinski J.
Jacquet K.
Gaubas V.
6-36-47-62
Kokkinakis T.
Bublik A.
6-43-67-6103-64-6
Lehecka J.
Popyrin A.
Molcan A.
Altmaier D.
Michelsen A.
Fearnley J.
6-36-42-63-62-6
Munar J.
Cerundolo F.
6-16-46-3
Arnaldi M.
Halys Q.
6-31-66-753-6
Moutet C.
Giron M.
6-4 4-6 3-1
Royer V.
Wendelken H.
4-66-36-36-3
Blockx A.
Zverev A.
4-6 7.10-6.8 1-1
Sinner J.
Borges N.
Brooksby J.
Buse I.[31]
Jodar R.
Carreno Busta P.
Mochizuki S.
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
Ofner S.
Kwon S.
Paul T.[21]
Nakashima B.
Struff J.
Merida Aguilar D.
Medvedev D.
Auger Aliassime F.
Prizmic D.
Mejia N.
Zheng M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Marozsan F.
Fucsovics M.
Tien L.[16]
Safiullin R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.
Rinderknech A.
Damm M.
Tsitsipas S.
Djokovic N.
De Minaur A.
Mannarino A.
—
Majchrzak K.
Khachanov K.
Hanfmann Y.
—
—
—
Bergs Z.
Faria J.
Fery A.
Virtanen O.
—
Kypson P.
Diallo G.
—
—
Jacquet K.
Bublik A.
—
Fearnley J.
Munar J.
Halys Q.
—
Royer V.
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—