Adrian Mannarino vs Alex De Minaur

s Hertogenbosch · ATP · Semi-final

FRA

Adrian Mannarino

#46ATP

1653ELO

1651Grass ELO

$445kYTD

$15MCAREER

37 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

AUS

Alex De Minaur

#6ATP

1979ELO

1825Grass ELO

$2.0MYTD

$25MCAREER

27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Adrian Mannarino faces Alex De Minaur in the s Hertogenbosch semi-final on grass. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 4–1, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Adrian Mannarino rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Last match: Alex De Minaur dropped just 6 games past Benjamin Bonzi.
Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 4–1, 1–1 on grass. Last met at Queen's Club 2023.
Fatigue load: Adrian Mannarino carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Stage: Adrian Mannarino defends last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Mannarino A.15%

De Minaur A.85%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mannarino A.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

De Minaur A.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

2.8Grass Elo 1650

Surface ELO

7.2+175 Grass Elo edge

0.9Overall Elo 1653

ELO gap

9.1Overall Elo 1978

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

9.09 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.28 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

6.1Won 68% in NED (34)

Country comfort

Context

6.0Reached qualifying here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

15°COvercast

Wind 21 km/hHumidity 82%

Head to head

1–4

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-06-19	Queen's Club	QF	grass	Alex De Minaur	6-4 4-6 6-4
2023-01-16	Australian Open	R64	hard	Alex De Minaur	7-6(3) 4-6 6-4 6-1
2022-07-25	Atlanta	QF	hard	Alex De Minaur	4-6 6-3 6-0
2022-06-06	s Hertogenbosch	R16	grass	Adrian Mannarino	6-2 6-3
2019-09-23	Zhuhai	F	hard	Alex De Minaur	7-6(4) 6-4

View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form

Mannarino A.De Minaur A.

63%1st serve in+5%58%

70%1st serve points won+1%71%

49%2nd serve points won+7%56%

62%Service points won+3%65%

35%Return points won+4%39%

58%Break points saved+5%63%

5.5Aces / match+1.24.3

2.2Double faults / match+0.52.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Adrian Mannarino vs Alex De Minaur — s Hertogenbosch Semi-final