Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander BublikBeijing Round of 32

Beijing · ATP · Round of 32
#40ATP
1673ELO
1647Hard ELO
$633kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 25 September 2025
hard
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Mannarino A.
6-3 6-2
Bublik A.
Mannarino A.
662
Bublik A.
320

Adrian Mannarino defeated Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-2 in the Beijing round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Adrian Mannarino claimed a first win over Alexander Bublik in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-01-06DohaR32hardAlexander Bublik6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mannarino A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Mannarino A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mannarino A.Bublik A.
37
Serve
65
32
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
67%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.5
10.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (93 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
65
88
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Even
66
67
Deciding sets·Dominant
72
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1647
Surface ELO
7.7+189 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1673
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1889
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
8.2
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
6.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
69
66

Mannarino A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Bublik A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%