Jannik Sinner vs Alex De MinaurBeijing Semi-final

Beijing · ATP · Semi-final
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 25 September 2025
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Sinner J.
6-3 4-6 6-2
De Minaur A.
Sinner J.
6462
De Minaur A.
3621

Jannik Sinner defeated Alex De Minaur 6-3 4-6 6-2 in the Beijing semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 12–0, defending last year's final. Jannik Sinner extended the head-to-head to 13–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Jannik Sinner closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

120
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-09Tour FinalsSFhardJannik Sinner7-5 6-2
2025-10-20ViennaSFhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-4
2025-01-13Australian OpenQFhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-2 6-1
2024-11-23Davis Cup Finals SF: ITA vs AUSRRhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-4
2024-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-4
2024-02-12RotterdamFhardJannik Sinner7-5 6-4
2023-11-26Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITARRhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-0
2023-08-07Canada MastersFhardJannik Sinner6-4 6-1
2022-05-02Madrid MastersR32clayJannik Sinner6-4 6-1
2022-01-17Australian OpenR16hardJannik Sinner7-6(3) 6-3 6-4
2020-11-09SofiaQFhardJannik Sinner6-7(3) 6-4 6-1
2019-11-05NextGen FinalsFhardJannik Sinner4-2 4-1 4-2

Serve vs return

This season
Sinner J.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Serve advantage — Sinner J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sinner J.De Minaur A.
100
Serve
48
100
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
59%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
72%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.3
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (94 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
95
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Even
100
97
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 49 days (−0.7)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.0+328 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Hard Elo 1935
9.3Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1961
10.0
H2H
0.0
9.0
Surface form
7.0
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.2
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
59
77

Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%