Katie Swan vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
Katie Swan
GBR
Katie Swan
#196WTA
1555ELO
1498Grass ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Madison Keys
USA
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1967ELO
1793Grass ELO
$990kYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWL
Swan K.
vs
Keys M.

Katie Swan faces Madison Keys in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Swan K.9%
Keys M.91%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swan K.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Keys M.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
1.3Grass Elo 1498
Surface ELO
8.7+295 Grass Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1554
ELO gap
8.5Overall Elo 1967
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.8Home country · 4/13 here
Country comfort
6.6Won 77% in GBR (60)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Swan K.Stable
Keys M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Swan K.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Swan K.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Swan K.

Serve advantage — Swan K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Swan K.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
48
92
Break points saved·Dominant
56
96
Break points won·Slight edge
95
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
96
Tiebreaks·
—
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Swan K.Keys M.
Freshness·Dominant
100
70

Swan K.: 18 days rest · Keys M.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-02United CupRRhardMadison Keys2-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassMadison Keys6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.
Snigur D.
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-6 4-3
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Vekic D.
Navarro E.
Badosa P.
4-6 2-1
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
4-1
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7.7-6.3 1-0
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.
6-36-3
Eala A.
Zarazua R.
S. Williams
Joint M.
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.
Bejlek S.
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
Seidel E.
Noskova L.
Shnaider D.
Lys E.
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.
Siegemund L.
3-0
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
2-2
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.
4-6 6-1 0-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
—
—
—
—
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
—
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
Swan K.
Keys M.
—
Birrell K.
—
—
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.
—
Timofeeva M.
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—