Jannik Sinner vs Alexander ZverevIndian Wells Masters Semi-final

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Semi-final
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
#3ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
Sinner J.
6-2 6-4
Zverev A.
Sinner J.
662
Zverev A.
240

Jannik Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6-2 6-4 in the Indian Wells Masters semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–4. Jannik Sinner extended the head-to-head to 10–4.

Key context

Head to head

94
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-22Madrid MastersFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-2
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersSFclayJannik Sinner6-1 6-4
2026-03-18Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6(4)
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner6-4 6-3
2025-10-27Paris MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-0 6-1
2025-10-20ViennaFhardJannik Sinner3-6 6-3 7-5
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardJannik Sinner6-3 7-6(4) 6-3
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersSFhardJannik Sinner7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4)
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersQFclayAlexander Zverev5-7 6-3 7-6(5)
2021-08-30US OpenR16hardAlexander Zverev6-4 6-4 7-6(7)
2020-10-19Cologne 2SFhardAlexander Zverev7-6(3) 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR16clayJannik Sinner6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Sinner J.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Zverev A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sinner J.Zverev A.
100
Serve
71
100
Return
42

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
81%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
59%
57%
Service points won·Even
73%
71%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
75%
55%
Aces / match·Even
9.1
9.3
Double faults / match·Even
1.3
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
94
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
100
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+222 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 2042
8.1Overall Elo 2320
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 2100
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.7
Surface form
6.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.5
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.8
Country comfort
6.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
59
52

Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d) · Zverev A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[11]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-37-63
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[4]
6-26-4