Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz — Indian Wells Masters Semi-final

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Semi-final
Daniil Medvedev
RUS11
Daniil Medvedev
#9ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP1
Carlos Alcaraz
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Medvedev D.
6-3 7-6
Alcaraz C.
Medvedev D.
6772
Alcaraz C.
3630

Daniil Medvedev defeated Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 7-6 in the Indian Wells Masters semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–2, defending last year's semi-final, but Daniil Medvedev had arrived on a 5-match winning run. Daniil Medvedev narrowed the head-to-head to 6–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-26BeijingSFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-3
2024-07-01WimbledonSFgrassCarlos Alcaraz6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 6-4
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(5) 6-1
2023-11-13Tour FinalsRRhardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardDaniil Medvedev7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3
2023-07-03WimbledonSFgrassCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-3 6-3
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-2
2021-06-28WimbledonR64grassDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Medvedev D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Medvedev D.Alcaraz C.
47
Serve
74
94
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Medvedev D.Alcaraz C.
1st serve in·Even
67%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
57%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.6
5.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Medvedev D.Alcaraz C.
Clutch Rating·Even
96
98
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
100
Tiebreaks·Even
99
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Medvedev D.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Alcaraz C.
9.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Hard Elo 1962
Surface ELO
7.8+126 Hard Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 2162
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.7
Surface form
10.0
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
10.013-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
6.3
Country comfort
6.9
Context
8.5
Defending pts
8.5
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Medvedev D.Alcaraz C.
Freshness·
76
—

Medvedev D.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Medvedev D.[11]
7-667-64
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[11]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-37-63
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[4]
6-26-4
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[2]
Tien L.[25]
6-16-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Norrie C.[27]
6-36-4
Zverev A.[4]
Fils A.[30]
6-26-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Draper J.[14]
6-17-5
R16
Sinner J.[2]
Fonseca J.
7-667-64
Tien L.[25]
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
4-66-17-64
Medvedev D.[11]
Michelsen A.
6-26-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Ruud C.[13]
6-17-62
Draper J.[14]
Djokovic N.[3]
4-66-47-65
Fils A.[30]
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-37-69
Zverev A.[4]
Tiafoe F.[21]
6-36-4
Norrie C.[27]
Hijikata R.
6-46-2
R32
Fonseca J.
Paul T.[23]
6-26-3
Michelsen A.
Fritz T.[7]
6-47-66
Sinner J.[2]
Shapovalov D.
6-36-2
Norrie C.[27]
De Minaur A.[6]
6-46-4
Draper J.[14]
Cerundolo F.[19]
6-17-5
Alcaraz C.[1]
Rinderknech A.[26]
6-766-36-2
Ruud C.[13]
Vacherot V.[24]
3-66-36-4
Fils A.[30]
Fucsovics M.
6-37-5
Zverev A.[4]
Nakashima B.[28]
7-625-76-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
Mensik J.[12]
6-24-66-2
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Diallo G.
6-756-36-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Baez S.
6-46-0
Djokovic N.[3]
Kovacevic A.
6-41-66-4
Hijikata R.
Bublik A.[10]
6-737-636-3
Tiafoe F.[21]
Cobolli F.[15]
6-16-2
Tien L.[25]
Shelton B.[8]
7-634-66-3
R64
Tien L.[25]
Walton A.
7-637-68
Sinner J.[2]
Svrcina D.
6-16-1
Fucsovics M.
Musetti L.[5]
7-56-1
Rinderknech A.[26]
Cerundolo J.
W/O
Fils A.[30]
Prizmic D.
6-23-2
Paul T.[23]
Bergs Z.
6-16-2
Michelsen A.
Humbert U.[32]
7-56-757-66
Cerundolo F.[19]
Bonzi B.
6-45-77-65
Tiafoe F.[21]
Brooksby J.
6-46-2
Baez S.
Lehecka J.[22]
6-46-1
Norrie C.[27]
Mcdonald M.
6-26-3
Fonseca J.
Khachanov K.[16]
4-67-676-4
Ruud C.[13]
Shevchenko A.
6-17-64
Hijikata R.
Darderi L.[20]
4-66-26-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
Svajda Z.
7-606-2
Medvedev D.[11]
Tabilo A.
6-46-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Dimitrov G.
6-26-3
Vacherot V.[24]
Borges N.
7-57-5
Kovacevic A.
Moutet C.[31]
6-16-4
Draper J.[14]
Bautista Agut R.
3-66-36-2
Mensik J.[12]
Giron M.
7-57-64
Zverev A.[4]
Berrettini M.
6-36-4
Fritz T.[7]
Fearnley J.
6-36-786-1
De Minaur A.[6]
Korda S.
4-66-46-4
Djokovic N.[3]
Majchrzak K.
4-66-16-2
Nakashima B.[28]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-36-4
Cobolli F.[15]
Kecmanovic M.
3-66-36-4
Diallo G.
Rublev A.[17]
6-747-616-3
Bublik A.[10]
Kopriva V.
3-67-636-2
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Monfils G.
6-756-36-4
Shelton B.[8]
Opelka R.
6-737-646-3
Shapovalov D.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-32-67-65
R128
Kovacevic A.
Hurkacz H.
7-667-64
Kecmanovic M.
Altmaier D.
6-31-0
Bergs Z.
Struff J.
6-36-4
Borges N.
Nava E.
7-697-5
Shapovalov D.
Tsitsipas S.
6-23-66-4
Svajda Z.
Cilic M.
7-656-4
Fearnley J.
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
Hijikata R.
Maestrelli F.
7-656-4
Majchrzak K.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-31-67-5
Shevchenko A.
Shimabukuro S.
6-43-66-2
Giron M.
Navone M.
4-67-56-3
Berrettini M.
Mannarino A.
4-67-57-5
Diallo G.
Bellucci M.
7-656-4
Kopriva V.
Zheng M.
7-617-5
Fonseca J.
Collignon R.
7-626-4
Brooksby J.
Popyrin A.
6-36-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Damm M.
7-656-3
Prizmic D.
Schoolkate T.
7-653-67-5
Walton A.
Halys Q.
6-36-3
Svrcina D.
Duckworth J.
6-26-4
Baez S.
Tseng C.
6-36-2
Cerundolo J.
Van De Zandschulp B.
7-636-756-3
Korda S.
Comesana F.
7-56-0
Mcdonald M.
Arnaldi M.
6-06-1
Monfils G.
Galarneau A.
6-36-4
Bonzi B.
Royer V.
6-46-3
Tabilo A.
Jodar R.
6-16-2
Dimitrov G.
Atmane T.
6-45-76-4
Opelka R.
Quinn E.
7-57-63
Michelsen A.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-36-4
Bautista Agut R.
Marozsan F.
6-46-726-4
Fucsovics M.
Oconnell C.
7-56-3