Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur RinderknechIndian Wells Masters Round of 32

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
#28ATP
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
$855kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLWW
Alcaraz C.
6-7 6-3 6-2
Rinderknech A.
Alcaraz C.
66662
Rinderknech A.
78321

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Arthur Rinderknech 6-7 6-3 6-2 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–0, defending last year's semi-final. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–0.

Key context

Head to head

50
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16DohaR32hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(5)
2025-08-25US OpenR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(3) 6-3 6-4
2025-06-16Queen's ClubQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-4
2023-06-19Queen's ClubR32grassCarlos Alcaraz4-6 7-5 7-6(3)
2021-08-30US OpenR64hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 4-6 6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Rinderknech A.

Rinderknech A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Rinderknech A.
75
Serve
51
95
Return
1

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
52%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
32%
Break points saved·Even
67%
70%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
10.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.2
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
58
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
99
6
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
9.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+341 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1748
10.0Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1780
10.0
H2H
0.0
10.0
Surface form
4.9
10.013-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.7
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.9
Country comfort
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
91

Rinderknech A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%