Joao Fonseca vs Karen KhachanovIndian Wells Masters Round of 64

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#27ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
#22ATP
1828ELO
1783Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWLWL
Fonseca J.
4-6 7-6 6-4
Khachanov K.
Fonseca J.
47962
Khachanov K.
66741

Joao Fonseca defeated Karen Khachanov 4-6 7-6 6-4 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karen Khachanov came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Joao Fonseca claimed a first win over Karen Khachanov in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-27Paris MastersR32hardKaren Khachanov6-1 3-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Fonseca J.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Khachanov K.

Khachanov K.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Fonseca J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fonseca J.Khachanov K.
47
Serve
61
38
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
53%
Service points won·Even
67%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
33%
Break points saved·Even
66%
70%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.7
8.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
76
86
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
43
81
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
83
Tiebreaks·Even
96
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+131 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1783
6.2Overall Elo 1928
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1828
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.6
Surface form
5.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.7
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.1
6.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
80

Fonseca J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Khachanov K.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%