Brandon Nakashima vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Indian Wells Masters Round of 64

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 64
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 4 March 2026
hard
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#59ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Nakashima B.
6-3 6-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Nakashima B.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
340

Brandon Nakashima defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-3 6-4 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 64 on hard. The result followed the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-22Madrid MastersQ2clayBrandon Nakashima7-6(4) 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Ugo Carabelli C.
61
Serve
0
23
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Nakashima B.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.3
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nakashima B.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
90
Break points won·Dominant
13
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
89
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nakashima B.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Ugo Carabelli C.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+146 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1642
5.7Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.1
Surface form
1.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.5
Minutes 14d
9.0
4.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.1
Country comfort
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nakashima B.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
97

Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 11%
Final
Sinner J.[2]
Medvedev D.[11]
7-667-64
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[11]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-37-63
Sinner J.[2]
Zverev A.[4]
6-26-4
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[2]
Tien L.[25]
6-16-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Norrie C.[27]
6-36-4
Zverev A.[4]
Fils A.[30]
6-26-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Draper J.[14]
6-17-5
R16
Sinner J.[2]
Fonseca J.
7-667-64
Tien L.[25]
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
4-66-17-64
Medvedev D.[11]
Michelsen A.
6-26-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Ruud C.[13]
6-17-62
Draper J.[14]
Djokovic N.[3]
4-66-47-65
Fils A.[30]
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-37-69
Zverev A.[4]
Tiafoe F.[21]
6-36-4
Norrie C.[27]
Hijikata R.
6-46-2
R32
Fonseca J.
Paul T.[23]
6-26-3
Michelsen A.
Fritz T.[7]
6-47-66
Sinner J.[2]
Shapovalov D.
6-36-2
Norrie C.[27]
De Minaur A.[6]
6-46-4
Draper J.[14]
Cerundolo F.[19]
6-17-5
Alcaraz C.[1]
Rinderknech A.[26]
6-766-36-2
Ruud C.[13]
Vacherot V.[24]
3-66-36-4
Fils A.[30]
Fucsovics M.
6-37-5
Zverev A.[4]
Nakashima B.[28]
7-625-76-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
Mensik J.[12]
6-24-66-2
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Diallo G.
6-756-36-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Baez S.
6-46-0
Djokovic N.[3]
Kovacevic A.
6-41-66-4
Hijikata R.
Bublik A.[10]
6-737-636-3
Tiafoe F.[21]
Cobolli F.[15]
6-16-2
Tien L.[25]
Shelton B.[8]
7-634-66-3
R64
Tien L.[25]
Walton A.
7-637-68
Sinner J.[2]
Svrcina D.
6-16-1
Fucsovics M.
Musetti L.[5]
7-56-1
Rinderknech A.[26]
Cerundolo J.
W/O
Fils A.[30]
Prizmic D.
6-23-2
Paul T.[23]
Bergs Z.
6-16-2
Michelsen A.
Humbert U.[32]
7-56-757-66
Cerundolo F.[19]
Bonzi B.
6-45-77-65
Tiafoe F.[21]
Brooksby J.
6-46-2
Baez S.
Lehecka J.[22]
6-46-1
Norrie C.[27]
Mcdonald M.
6-26-3
Fonseca J.
Khachanov K.[16]
4-67-676-4
Ruud C.[13]
Shevchenko A.
6-17-64
Hijikata R.
Darderi L.[20]
4-66-26-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[18]
Svajda Z.
7-606-2
Medvedev D.[11]
Tabilo A.
6-46-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Dimitrov G.
6-26-3
Vacherot V.[24]
Borges N.
7-57-5
Kovacevic A.
Moutet C.[31]
6-16-4
Draper J.[14]
Bautista Agut R.
3-66-36-2
Mensik J.[12]
Giron M.
7-57-64
Zverev A.[4]
Berrettini M.
6-36-4
Fritz T.[7]
Fearnley J.
6-36-786-1
De Minaur A.[6]
Korda S.
4-66-46-4
Djokovic N.[3]
Majchrzak K.
4-66-16-2
Nakashima B.[28]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-36-4
Cobolli F.[15]
Kecmanovic M.
3-66-36-4
Diallo G.
Rublev A.[17]
6-747-616-3
Bublik A.[10]
Kopriva V.
3-67-636-2
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Monfils G.
6-756-36-4
Shelton B.[8]
Opelka R.
6-737-646-3
Shapovalov D.
Etcheverry T.[29]
6-32-67-65
R128
Kovacevic A.
Hurkacz H.
7-667-64
Kecmanovic M.
Altmaier D.
6-31-0
Bergs Z.
Struff J.
6-36-4
Borges N.
Nava E.
7-697-5
Shapovalov D.
Tsitsipas S.
6-23-66-4
Svajda Z.
Cilic M.
7-656-4
Fearnley J.
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
Hijikata R.
Maestrelli F.
7-656-4
Majchrzak K.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-31-67-5
Shevchenko A.
Shimabukuro S.
6-43-66-2
Giron M.
Navone M.
4-67-56-3
Berrettini M.
Mannarino A.
4-67-57-5
Diallo G.
Bellucci M.
7-656-4
Kopriva V.
Zheng M.
7-617-5
Fonseca J.
Collignon R.
7-626-4
Brooksby J.
Popyrin A.
6-36-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Damm M.
7-656-3
Prizmic D.
Schoolkate T.
7-653-67-5
Walton A.
Halys Q.
6-36-3
Svrcina D.
Duckworth J.
6-26-4
Baez S.
Tseng C.
6-36-2
Cerundolo J.
Van De Zandschulp B.
7-636-756-3
Korda S.
Comesana F.
7-56-0
Mcdonald M.
Arnaldi M.
6-06-1
Monfils G.
Galarneau A.
6-36-4
Bonzi B.
Royer V.
6-46-3
Tabilo A.
Jodar R.
6-16-2
Dimitrov G.
Atmane T.
6-45-76-4
Opelka R.
Quinn E.
7-57-63
Michelsen A.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-36-4
Bautista Agut R.
Marozsan F.
6-46-726-4
Fucsovics M.
Oconnell C.
7-56-3