Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final
Why
Surface+106 Hard Elo edgeSupports Zverev A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2100Supports Zverev A.
Head-to-headTrails 4–6 on hardAgainst the prediction · De Minaur A.
This eventReached the quarters here last yearAgainst the prediction · De Minaur A.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · De Minaur A.
ELO2 325
Hard ELO2 143
Last 108–2
Age29
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $68.6M2026 $9.0M
ELO2 120
Hard ELO1 998
Last 108–2
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $25.8M2026 $3.0M
Alexander Zverev faces Alex De Minaur in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on hard. Alexander Zverev holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 8–4, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Alexander Zverev grades 85 on serve, Alex De Minaur 73 on return.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head 8–4, 6–4 on hard. Last met at Laver Cup - London 2026.
- Last match: Alexander Zverev edged Alexander Bublik in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 7–6).
Common opponents
22 shared · last 12 monthsZverev A. and De Minaur A. faced 22 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Zverev A. went 27–10 (73%) against them, De Minaur A. 18–14 (56%). Zverev A. came out better against 8 of 21 comparable opponents, De Minaur A. against 1.
27–1073%Zverev A. · better vs 8Record vs common opponents18–1456%De Minaur A. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
71–36Sets40–36
588–487Games375–376
16–8Tiebreaks9–5
7–3Deciding sets5–2
vs Sinner J.#1L4-6 3-6Tour Finals · hardL5-7 2-6Tour Finals · hard
vs Alcaraz C.#3L4-6 6-7 7-6 7-6 5-7Australian Open · hardL5-7 2-6 1-6Australian Open · hard- vs Cobolli F.#7W6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1Roland Garros · clayL5-7 6-7 3-6Wimbledon · grass
Show 19 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Tiafoe F.#8W6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-3 6-4 7-5Australian Open · hard
vs Fils A.#10W6-2 6-3Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 4-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Djokovic N.#11L6-4 4-6 4-6Beijing · hardL6-7(3) 1-0Beijing · hard- vs Jodar R.#13W6-1 6-3Roland Garros · clayL3-6 1-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Mensik J.#15W7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3Roland Garros · clayL6-0 2-6 2-6 3-6Roland Garros · clay- vs Nakashima B.#18W7-6 5-7 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardL5-7 3-6London · grass
vs Bublik A.#22W7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(1)Shanghai Masters · hardW6-4 6-1 6-1Australian Open · hard
vs Khachanov K.#27W6-3 7-6(7) 7-6(6)US Open · hardW6-3 6-4Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Blockx A.#28W6-2 7-5Madrid Masters · clayW7-5 7-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Hurkacz H.#34L3-6 4-6United Cup · hardW6-4 4-6 6-4United Cup · hard
vs Fery A.#37W7-6 6-2 6-4Wimbledon · grassW7-5 7-6(3)Cincinnati · hard- vs Norrie C.#40W3-6 6-3 6-3Cincinnati · hardL7-5 6-7 1-6Montreal · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41W6-2 7-5 6-1US Open · hardL4-6 5-7 2-6US Open · hard
vs Navone M.#47W6-1 3-6 6-3Madrid Masters · clayW7-6(4) 6-2Beijing · hard- vs Halys Q.#48W6-4 6-7(8) 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardW3-6 7-6(5) 7-5Beijing · hard
- vs Bonzi B.#92W6-3 6-4 6-2Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-4s Hertogenbosch · grass
- vs Damm M.#104W6-2 6-4Miami Masters · hardW7-5s Hertogenbosch · grass
vs Diallo G.#121W6-7 6-1 6-4 6-2Australian Open · hardW7-6 4-6 6-3Paris Masters · hard- vs Fritz T.#12Hard to compareL7-6 4-6 5-7Halle · grassW7-6 6-3Tour Finals · hard
Head-to-head
12 meetings · Zverev A. leads 8–484
Hard: Zverev A. leads 6–4 · Clay: Zverev A. leads 2–0
- De Minaur A.September 2026Laver Cup - LondonHard6-2 6-7(5) 9-11
- De Minaur A.September 2025Laver CupHard6-1 6-4
- Zverev A.May 2024Roland GarrosClay6-4 7-6 6-4
- Zverev A.March 2024Indian Wells MastersHard5-7 6-2 6-3
- De Minaur A.January 2024United CupHard5-7 6-3 6-4
Evidence
Zverev A.De Minaur A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–28–2
Season win rate81% (61–14) (ahead)68% (41–19)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2325 (ahead)2120
Hard-court ELO2143 (ahead)1998
Serve vs returnLast 70 vs 54 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)71%
Return points won37%40% (ahead)
Aces / match10.7 (ahead)4.3
ClutchLast 70 vs 54 matches
Break points saved60%68% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/minaur-vs-zverev-shanghai-masters-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).