Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex De MinaurUS Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
#70ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWL
3 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 4th on
#7ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLWWL
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-4 7-5 6-2
De Minaur A.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6763
De Minaur A.
4520

Botic Van De Zandschulp defeated Alex De Minaur in the Round of 64 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Van De Zandschulp. He hit 7 aces and committed 3 double faults, converting 43% of break points and securing 3 service breaks to De Minaur's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-09RotterdamQFhardAlex De Minaur3-6 7-6 7-5
2025-02-17DohaR16hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardAlex De Minaur6-1 7-5 6-4
2022-11-22Davis Cup Finals QF: AUS vs NEDRRhardAlex De Minaur5-7 6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
71
95
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Dominant
53
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Van De Zandschulp B.25%
De Minaur A.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.2Hard Elo 1710
Surface ELO
7.8+225 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1743
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1961
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
H2H
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
39
86

Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 171 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw