Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima — London Quarter-final

London · ATP · Quarter-final
Alex De Minaur
AUS
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1970ELO
1821Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWLW
—
Sets
Friday, 19 June 2026 ·
grass
Brandon Nakashima
USA
Brandon Nakashima
#32ATP
1812ELO
1728Grass ELO
$612kYTD
$7.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLLW
De Minaur A.
vs
Nakashima B.

Alex De Minaur faces Brandon Nakashima in the London quarter-final on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
De Minaur A.73%
Nakashima B.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Nakashima B.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+93 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1728
7.0Overall Elo 1970
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1812
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.08 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Minaur A.Stable
Nakashima B.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
69%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.2
9.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
58
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
97
14
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
69
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
—
Serve
—
79
Return
18

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Dominant
59
88

De Minaur A.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 111 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21WashingtonQFhardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2021-10-18AntwerpR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 6-0
View full head-to-head →
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
De Minaur A.[1]
Diallo G.
7-686-3
Pinnington Jones J.
Shapovalov D.
4-66-46-73
Nakashima B.
Fucsovics M.
6-36-3
Buse I.
Giron M.[6]
3-67-57-68
Mensik J.[3]
Mannarino A.
7-56-736-75
Fery A.
Samuel T.
6-06-2
Brooksby J.
Damm M.
6-43-66-3
Kovacevic A.
Cerundolo F.[7]
4-67-652-6
Paul T.[8]
Svajda Z.
7-56-3
Van De Zandschulp B.
Wendelken H.
6-47-65
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Moutet C.
7-654-66-75
Norrie C.
Davidovich Fokina A.[4]
6-762-6
Rinderknech A.[6]
Medjedovic H.
6-756-74
Humbert U.
Cilic M.
7-56-3
Hijikata R.
Tabilo A.
6-26-4
Majchrzak K.
Lehecka J.[2]
5-76-74
De Minaur A.[1]
Shapovalov D.
6-46-1
Nakashima B.
Buse I.
6-26-2
Mannarino A.
Fery A.
6-774-6
Brooksby J.
Cerundolo F.
0-64-6
Paul T.
Van De Zandschulp B.
Moutet C.
Davidovich Fokina A.
Medjedovic H.
Humbert U.
Hijikata R.
Lehecka J.
De Minaur A.
Nakashima B.
Fery A.
Cerundolo F.
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