Alex De Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaWashington Quarter-final

Washington · ATP · Quarter-final
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 21 July 2025
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
De Minaur A.
6-4 6-4
Nakashima B.
De Minaur A.
662
Nakashima B.
440

Alex De Minaur defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-4 in the Washington quarter-final on hard. Alex De Minaur claimed a first win over Brandon Nakashima in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex De Minaur edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-19LondonQFgrassBrandon Nakashima5-7 3-6
2021-10-18AntwerpR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
48
Serve
61
80
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.0
9.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
56
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
97
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+148 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1788
7.2Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
6.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.3
Country comfort
7.0
7.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
77
86

De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CDrizzle
Wind 0 km/hHumidity 65%