Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima — Washington Quarter-final

Washington · ATP · Quarter-final
Alex De Minaur
AUS1
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWWL
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Brandon Nakashima
USA
Brandon Nakashima
#33ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWLWW
De Minaur A.
vs
Nakashima B.

Alex De Minaur faces Brandon Nakashima in the Washington quarter-final on hard. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #6, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Brandon Nakashima has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
De Minaur A.64%
Nakashima B.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · De Minaur A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
21 common opponents · De Minaur A. 18–10 · Nakashima B. 10–13
De Minaur A. better · same surface, 43 days apart · incl. team event · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+148 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1788
6.5Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1839
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.1
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
24
Break points saved·Even
97
95
Break points won·Dominant
96
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
14
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
98
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Slight edge
78
89

De Minaur A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-19LondonQFgrassBrandon Nakashima5-7 3-6
2025-07-21WashingtonQFhardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2021-10-18AntwerpR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 6-0
View full head-to-head →

Draw