Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik — Washington Round of 16
CZE7
Nakashima B.
Brandon Nakashima faces Jakub Mensik in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Jakub Mensik holds the paper edge — ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Mensik J. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jakub Mensik has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 77 vs Brandon Nakashima's 22).
- Serve & return: Brandon Nakashima brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 56), Jakub Mensik the stronger return game (Return Rating 44).
- Fatigue load: Brandon Nakashima carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNakashima B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Mensik J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Q1 | hard | Jakub Mensik | 6-4 7-6 |