Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz — Washington Semi-final

Washington · ATP · Semi-final

USA

Brandon Nakashima

#33ATP

1839ELO

1788Hard ELO

$990kYTD

$7.9MCAREER

24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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—

Sets

Saturday, 1 August 2026 · 18:30

hard

USA3

Taylor Fritz

#10ATP

1909ELO

1839Hard ELO

$1.6MYTD

$31MCAREER

28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Nakashima B.

Fritz T.

Brandon Nakashima faces Taylor Fritz in the Washington semi-final on hard. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC

Nakashima B.31%

Fritz T.69%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fritz T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Taylor Fritz has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 72 vs 26).
Serve & return: Taylor Fritz brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 83), Brandon Nakashima the stronger return game (Return Rating 21).
Last match: Brandon Nakashima edged Alex De Minaur in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).

Common opponents

Last 12 months

14 common opponents · Nakashima B. 8–10 · Fritz T. 14–5

Fritz T. better · same surface, 43 days apart · incl. team event▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Nakashima B.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Fritz T.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.4Hard Elo 1788

Surface ELO

5.6+51 Hard Elo edge

4.1Overall Elo 1839

ELO gap

5.9Overall Elo 1909

4.8Split 1–1 on hard

H2H

5.2Split 1–1 on hard

7.27 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.57 of last 10 on hard

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season

Nakashima B.Fritz T.

1st serve in·Even

68%

1st serve points won·Even

79%

80%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

54%

Service points won·Even

69%

72%

Return points won·Even

34%

33%

Break points saved·Slight edge

59%

67%

Aces / match·Dominant

10.7

15.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

0.8

1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Nakashima B.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Fritz T.serving96% hold

wins 77% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Nakashima B.Fritz T.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Fritz T.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Nakashima B.Fritz T.

Freshness·Clear edge

Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Fritz T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

33°COvercast

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 34%

Head to head

1–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-02-09	Dallas	R16	hard	Taylor Fritz	6-3 6-4
2024-08-12	Cincinnati Masters	R64	hard	Brandon Nakashima	6-4 4-6 7-6
2021-10-04	Indian Wells Masters	R64	hard	Taylor Fritz	6-3 6-4
2021-06-28	Wimbledon	R128	grass	Taylor Fritz	7-5 3-6 6-4 7-5

View full head-to-head →

Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz — Washington Semi-final

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard