Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar — Washington Final

Washington · ATP · Final
Taylor Fritz
USA3
Taylor Fritz
#9ATP
1909ELO
1839Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 2nd on
Rafael Jodar
ESP
Rafael Jodar
#15ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWW
Fritz T.
vs
Jodar R.

Taylor Fritz faces Rafael Jodar in the Washington final on hard. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Around the match

  • “His knee tendinitis is not currently an issue, but he received treatment multiple times on Friday and admitted that he briefly felt it again on Saturday.”

    Fritz T.The Grandstand ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Fritz T.63%
Jodar R.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fritz T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Fritz T. 12–5 · Jodar R. 10–3
Fritz T. better · different surfaces (Grass × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fritz T.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Jodar R.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1838
Surface ELO
5.4+34 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1909
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1999
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.68 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 41 matches

Statistics

This season
Fritz T.Jodar R.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.7
4.4
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fritz T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Jodar R.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fritz T.Jodar R.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
86
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
91
Break points won·Dominant
26
71
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fritz T.Jodar R.
Freshness·Slight edge
61
56

Fritz T.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d) · Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16Delray BeachR16hardTaylor Fritz7-6 6-4

Draw