Alex De Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov — London Round of 16
De Minaur A.
Alex De Minaur faces Denis Shapovalov in the London round of 16 on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 5–0, a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alex De Minaur comes in with 2 days of rest and 89 games in 14d, vs Denis Shapovalov's 1 and 68.
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 5–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Madrid Masters 2025.
- Last match: Denis Shapovalov edged Jack Pinnington Jones in three tight sets (6–4 4–6 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadDe Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 89 games (7d) · Shapovalov D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on ANDY MURRAY ARENA · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Nakashima B. v Buse I.
- 2De Minaur A. v Shapovalov D.This match
- 3Mannarino A. v Fery A.
- 4Brooksby J. v Cerundolo F.
Conditions
Head to head
5–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | R32 | clay | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2022-10-17 | Stockholm | QF | hard | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 7-6(4) |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | R64 | hard | Alex De Minaur | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2020-01-06 | Atp Cup | RR | hard | Alex De Minaur | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-11-21 | Davis Cup Finals QF: AUS vs CAN | RR | hard | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |