Daniel Altmaier vs Denis ShapovalovTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#61ATP
1734ELO
1652Hard ELO
$574kYTD
$5.4MCAREER
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Altmaier D.
7-5 6-3
Shapovalov D.
Altmaier D.
762
Shapovalov D.
530

Daniel Altmaier defeated Denis Shapovalov 7-5 6-3 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Daniel Altmaier claimed a first win over Denis Shapovalov in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-01WimbledonR64grassDenis Shapovalov7-6(3) 6-3 1-6 6-7(3) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Altmaier D.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Altmaier D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Altmaier D.Shapovalov D.
17
Serve
25
4
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.0
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (88 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
71
85
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
34
71
Deciding sets·Even
92
92
Tiebreaks·Even
82
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 48 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1652
Surface ELO
7.1+124 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1734
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1771
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.0
Surface form
5.8
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
94
98

Altmaier D.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%