Alexander Zverev vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · ATP · Quarter-final
Alexander Zverev
GER1
Alexander Zverev
#2ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 5th on
Botic Van De Zandschulp
NED
Botic Van De Zandschulp
#70ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWW
Zverev A.
vs
Van De Zandschulp B.

Alexander Zverev faces Botic Van De Zandschulp in the US Open quarter-final on hard. Alexander Zverev holds the paper edge — ranked #2, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 330-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Zverev A.94%
Van De Zandschulp B.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Zverev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Zverev A. 13–7 · Van De Zandschulp B. 7–8
Van De Zandschulp B. better · same surface · 11 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zverev A.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Van De Zandschulp B.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.1+331 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1710
9.5Overall Elo 2100
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1743
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

51 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Zverev A.Van De Zandschulp B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
72%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
59%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
72%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.1
7.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zverev A.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Van De Zandschulp B.

Van De Zandschulp B.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Serve advantage — Zverev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Zverev A.Van De Zandschulp B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
71
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
93
Break points won·Dominant
89
53
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Zverev A.Van De Zandschulp B.
Freshness·Slight edge
47
39

Zverev A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 167 games (7d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 171 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw