Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16

GER1

Alexander Zverev

#3ATP

2100ELO

2042Hard ELO

$6.5MYTD

$66MCAREER

29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWWWWWW

Sets

Live

Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 14:05

hard

COURT 10 · 2nd on

USA18

Tommy Paul

#24ATP

1949ELO

1881Hard ELO

$1.7MYTD

$15MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLWWLL

Zverev A.

6-4 6-6

Paul T.

Serve vs return

This season

Zverev A.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Zverev A.Paul T.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexander Zverev 84 games in 14 days, Tommy Paul 100.
Serve & return: Alexander Zverev brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 81), Tommy Paul the stronger return game (Return Rating 65).
Last match: Tommy Paul dropped the opening set before beating Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 3–6 6–3 6–4.

Clutch

Under pressure

Zverev A.Paul T.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

28°COvercast

Wind 7 km/hHumidity 60%

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Zverev A.

7.3

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Paul T.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.0+160 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.0Hard Elo 1881

6.9Overall Elo 2100

ELO gap

3.1Overall Elo 1948

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

7.78 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.17 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Statistics

This season

Zverev A.Paul T.

1st serve in·Slight edge

72%

62%

1st serve points won·Even

77%

75%

2nd serve points won·Even

59%

56%

Service points won·Even

72%

68%

Return points won·Even

38%

Break points saved·Even

59%

62%

Aces / match·Dominant

10.2

6.9

Double faults / match·Even

1.9

1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Freshness

Recent load

Zverev A.Paul T.

Freshness·Slight edge

Zverev A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Paul T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Alexander Zverev faces Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Alexander Zverev is the paper favourite — ranked #3, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage — but Tommy Paul has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.

Around the match

“He was playing incredibly aggressively, hitting forehands all over the court. He made it difficult for you to play aggressive yourself.”
Zverev A.Al Jazeera ↗
Paul has struggled with injury issues this season, posting a 3-4 record in his last seven matches before Cincinnati, though he has found form in the tournament with three-set victories.
Paul T.The Grandstand ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

1–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-01-13	Australian Open	QF	hard	Alexander Zverev	7-6 7-6 2-6 6-1
2022-03-07	Indian Wells Masters	R64	hard	Tommy Paul	6-2 4-6 7-6
2020-02-24	Acapulco	R16	hard	Tommy Paul	6-3 6-4

View full head-to-head →

Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Cincinnati Round of 16

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Key context

Clutch

Conditions

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Freshness

Around the match

Head to head

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard