Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — Australian Open Round of 16

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP1
Carlos Alcaraz
#2ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
3 — 0
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026
hard
Tommy Paul
USA19
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Alcaraz C.
7-6 6-4 7-5
Paul T.
Alcaraz C.
78673
Paul T.
66450

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 7-6 6-4 7-5 in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's quarter-final. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(7)
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3
2023-08-07Canada MastersQFhardTommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3
2023-03-20Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Paul T.
74
Serve
71
95
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
57%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Even
42%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
6.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
99
87
Deciding sets·Even
100
98
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 71 days (−1.2)
Paul T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.1+207 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1881
9.3Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1949
6.7
H2H
3.3
7.7
Surface form
5.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.6
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
6.1
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Freshness·
—
84

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 28%
Final
Alcaraz C.[1]
Djokovic N.[4]
2-66-26-37-5
Semi-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Sinner J.[2]
3-66-34-66-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Zverev A.[3]
6-47-656-736-747-5
Quarter-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Musetti L.[5]
4-63-63-1
Sinner J.[2]
Shelton B.[8]
6-36-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
De Minaur A.[6]
7-56-26-1
Zverev A.[3]
Tien L.[25]
6-36-756-17-63
R16
Djokovic N.[4]
Mensik J.[16]
W/O
Zverev A.[3]
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-26-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Paul T.[19]
7-666-47-5
Musetti L.[5]
Fritz T.[9]
6-27-56-4
Tien L.[25]
Medvedev D.[11]
6-46-06-3
Sinner J.[2]
Darderi L.[22]
6-16-37-62
De Minaur A.[6]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-16-1
Shelton B.[8]
Ruud C.[12]
3-66-46-36-4
R32
Paul T.[19]
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
6-16-10-0
Ruud C.[12]
Cilic M.
6-46-43-67-5
Cerundolo F.[18]
Rublev A.[13]
6-37-646-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Marozsan F.
6-754-67-56-06-3
Zverev A.[3]
Norrie C.[26]
7-54-66-36-1
Darderi L.[22]
Khachanov K.[15]
7-653-66-36-4
Fritz T.[9]
Wawrinka S.
7-652-66-46-4
Tien L.[25]
Borges N.
7-696-46-2
Mensik J.[16]
Quinn E.
6-27-657-65
Djokovic N.[4]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-47-64
Sinner J.[2]
Spizzirri E.
4-66-36-46-4
De Minaur A.[6]
Tiafoe F.[29]
6-36-47-5
Bublik A.[10]
Etcheverry T.
7-647-656-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Moutet C.[32]
6-26-46-1
Shelton B.[8]
Vacherot V.[30]
6-46-47-65
Musetti L.[5]
Machac T.
5-76-46-25-76-2
R64
Moutet C.[32]
Zheng M.
3-66-16-32-0
Tiafoe F.[29]
Comesana F.
6-46-34-66-2
Spizzirri E.
Wu Y.
6-26-46-744-66-3
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
6-47-656-1
Paul T.[19]
Tirante T.
6-36-46-2
Vacherot V.[30]
Hijikata R.
6-16-34-66-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Hanfmann Y.
7-646-36-2
Shelton B.[8]
Sweeny D.
6-36-26-2
Cilic M.
Shapovalov D.[21]
6-46-36-2
Medvedev D.[11]
Halys Q.
6-796-36-46-2
Bublik A.[10]
Fucsovics M.
7-56-47-5
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
Opelka R.
6-37-635-74-66-4
Etcheverry T.
Fery A.
7-646-16-3
Khachanov K.[15]
Basavareddy N.
6-16-46-3
Mensik J.[16]
Jodar R.
6-26-46-4
Ruud C.[12]
Munar J.
6-37-56-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Maestrelli F.
6-36-26-2
Darderi L.[22]
Baez S.
6-31-66-46-3
Tien L.[25]
Shevchenko A.
6-25-76-16-0
Wawrinka S.
Gea A.
4-66-33-67-57-63
Zverev A.[3]
Muller A.
6-34-66-36-4
Borges N.
Thompson J.
6-796-36-26-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Shang J.
7-666-26-3
Sinner J.[2]
Duckworth J.
6-16-46-2
Fritz T.[9]
Kopriva V.
6-16-47-64
De Minaur A.[6]
Medjedovic H.
6-756-26-26-1
Machac T.
Tsitsipas S.[31]
6-43-67-657-65
Marozsan F.
Majchrzak K.
6-36-47-65
Musetti L.[5]
Sonego L.
6-36-36-4
Cerundolo F.[18]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-26-1
Norrie C.[26]
Nava E.
6-17-634-67-65
Rublev A.[13]
Faria J.
6-46-34-67-5
R128
Borges N.
Auger Aliassime F.[7]
3-66-46-40-0
Alcaraz C.[1]
Walton A.
6-37-626-2
Maestrelli F.
Atmane T.
6-43-66-746-16-1
Mensik J.[16]
Carreno Busta P.
7-54-62-67-616-3
Gea A.
Lehecka J.[17]
7-57-617-5
Duckworth J.
Prizmic D.
7-643-61-67-56-3
Etcheverry T.
Kecmanovic M.
6-23-64-66-36-4
Vacherot V.[30]
Damm M.
6-46-46-4
Shelton B.[8]
Humbert U.
6-37-627-65
Basavareddy N.
Oconnell C.
4-67-676-736-26-3
Opelka R.
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-46-36-4
Sinner J.[2]
Gaston H.
6-26-10-0
Musetti L.[5]
Collignon R.
4-67-637-53-2
Shapovalov D.[21]
Yunchaokete B.
6-37-636-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
Misolic F.
6-26-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Svajda Z.
7-54-66-47-63
Hijikata R.
Mannarino A.
6-36-36-1
Munar J.
Svrcina D.
3-66-26-757-56-3
Moutet C.[32]
Schoolkate T.
6-47-616-3
Fucsovics M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-656-16-2
Halys Q.
Tabilo A.
6-26-27-62
Fery A.
Cobolli F.[20]
7-616-46-1
Sweeny D.
Monfils G.
6-737-56-47-5
De Minaur A.[6]
Mcdonald M.
6-26-26-3
Machac T.
Dimitrov G.
6-46-46-3
Darderi L.[22]
Garin C.
7-657-57-63
Djokovic N.[4]
Martinez P.
6-36-26-2
Khachanov K.[15]
Michelsen A.
4-66-46-35-76-3
Quinn E.
Griekspoor T.[23]
6-26-36-2
Tirante T.
Vukic A.
7-56-26-2
Faria J.
Blockx A.
6-33-66-36-4
Bublik A.[10]
Brooksby J.
6-46-46-4
Spizzirri E.
Fonseca J.[28]
6-42-66-16-2
Cilic M.
Altmaier D.
6-06-07-63
Baez S.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-46-43-65-76-3
Fritz T.[9]
Royer V.
7-655-76-16-3
Zverev A.[3]
Diallo G.
6-716-16-46-2
Medjedovic H.
Navone M.
6-26-736-46-2
Nava E.
Jacquet K.
6-27-56-754-67-66
Shevchenko A.
Ymer E.
3-67-56-46-1
Kopriva V.
Struff J.
4-66-22-66-36-1
Marozsan F.
Rinderknech A.[24]
6-36-46-726-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Nakashima B.[27]
6-34-67-617-63
Norrie C.[26]
Bonzi B.
6-06-724-66-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[31]
Mochizuki S.
4-66-36-26-2
Tiafoe F.[29]
Kubler J.
7-646-36-2
Majchrzak K.
Fearnley J.
7-627-53-67-63
Zheng M.
Korda S.
6-46-43-66-706-3
Sonego L.
Taberner C.
6-46-06-3
Muller A.
Popyrin A.
2-66-33-67-657-64
Hurkacz H.
Bergs Z.
6-767-666-36-3
Dzumhur D.
Draxl L.
7-56-06-4
Wawrinka S.
Djere L.
5-76-36-47-64
Wu Y.
Nardi L.
7-54-66-46-2
Rublev A.[13]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-26-3
Ruud C.[12]
Bellucci M.
6-16-26-4
Cerundolo F.[18]
Zhang Z.
6-37-606-3
Comesana F.
Kypson P.
6-26-33-66-3
Thompson J.
Cerundolo J.
6-737-56-16-1
Shang J.
Bautista Agut R.
6-46-726-46-0
Paul T.[19]
Kovacevic A.
6-46-36-3
Jodar R.
Sakamoto R.
7-666-15-74-66-3
Medvedev D.[11]
De Jong J.
7-56-27-62
Tien L.[25]
Giron M.
7-624-63-67-636-2