Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — Miami Masters Round of 16

Miami Masters · ATP · Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP1
Carlos Alcaraz
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 March 2023
hard
Tommy Paul
USA16
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Alcaraz C.
6-4 6-4
Paul T.
Alcaraz C.
662
Paul T.
440

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 6-4 6-4 in the Miami Masters round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending the title. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Carlos Alcaraz edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-4 7-5
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-3 7-6(7)
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3
2023-08-07Canada MastersQFhardTommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Paul T.
74
Serve
71
95
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
66%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.1
6.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
99
87
Deciding sets·Even
100
98
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Paul T.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.1+207 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1881
9.3Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1949
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.6
Surface form
7.3
10.011-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.8
Minutes 14d
6.4
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.8
Country comfort
7.3
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Freshness·
—
88

Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 73%
Final
Medvedev D.[4]
Sinner J.[10]
7-56-3
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[10]
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-746-46-2
Medvedev D.[4]
Khachanov K.[14]
7-653-66-3
Quarter-finals
Alcaraz C.[1]
Fritz T.[9]
6-46-2
Khachanov K.[14]
Cerundolo F.[25]
6-36-2
Sinner J.[10]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-36-1
Medvedev D.[4]
Eubanks C.
6-37-5
R16
Alcaraz C.[1]
Paul T.[16]
6-46-4
Eubanks C.
Mannarino A.
7-627-65
Fritz T.[9]
Rune H.[7]
6-36-4
Ruusuvuori E.
Van De Zandschulp B.[26]
4-66-47-5
Medvedev D.[4]
Halys Q.
6-46-2
Cerundolo F.[25]
Sonego L.
3-66-36-2
Khachanov K.[14]
Tsitsipas S.[2]
7-646-4
Sinner J.[10]
Rublev A.[6]
6-26-4
R32
Mannarino A.
Hurkacz H.[8]
7-657-60
Medvedev D.[4]
Molcan A.
W/O
Eubanks C.
Barrere G.
6-37-67
Cerundolo F.[25]
Auger Aliassime F.[5]
6-27-5
Sinner J.[10]
Dimitrov G.[21]
6-36-4
Halys Q.
Mcdonald M.
7-626-3
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.[12]
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Lajovic D.
6-07-65
Paul T.[16]
Davidovich Fokina A.[20]
6-37-5
Fritz T.[9]
Shapovalov D.[24]
6-46-4
Rune H.[7]
Schwartzman D.[31]
6-46-2
Ruusuvuori E.
Daniel T.
6-37-63
Rublev A.[6]
Kecmanovic M.[29]
6-16-2
Khachanov K.[14]
Lehecka J.
6-26-4
Tsitsipas S.[2]
Garin C.
6-34-66-4
Van De Zandschulp B.[26]
Ruud C.[3]
3-66-46-4
R64
Davidovich Fokina A.[20]
Nakashima B.
6-47-65
Paul T.[16]
Huesler M.
5-76-36-4
Fritz T.[9]
Nava E.
6-46-1
Rune H.[7]
Fucsovics M.
6-37-5
Ruud C.[3]
Ivashka I.
6-26-3
Van De Zandschulp B.[26]
Popyrin A.
4-67-646-2
Dimitrov G.[21]
Struff J.
4-67-656-4
Kecmanovic M.[29]
Humbert U.
6-46-757-63
Hurkacz H.[8]
Kokkinakis T.
6-7107-677-66
Mannarino A.
Shelton B.[32]
6-43-66-1
Eubanks C.
Coric B.[17]
3-66-46-2
Halys Q.
De Minaur A.[15]
6-757-637-68
Barrere G.
Norrie C.[11]
6-36-2
Mcdonald M.
Berrettini M.[19]
7-687-65
Medvedev D.[4]
Carballes Baena R.
6-16-2
Auger Aliassime F.[5]
Monteiro T.
7-657-68
Sonego L.
Evans D.[23]
4-66-36-2
Tiafoe F.[12]
Watanuki Y.
6-757-636-4
Tsitsipas S.[2]
Gasquet R.
W/O
Khachanov K.[14]
Etcheverry T.
6-13-66-3
Lehecka J.
Musetti L.[18]
6-46-4
Garin C.
Baez S.[27]
7-626-3
Rublev A.[6]
Wolf J.
7-636-4
Cerundolo F.[25]
Kovacevic A.
6-46-4
Molcan A.
Nishioka Y.[28]
7-651-66-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Bagnis F.
6-06-2
Lajovic D.
Cressy M.[30]
6-47-62
Schwartzman D.[31]
Wu Y.
7-616-1
Ruusuvuori E.
Bautista Agut R.[22]
6-47-65
Daniel T.
Zverev A.[13]
6-06-4
Sinner J.[10]
Djere L.
6-46-2
Shapovalov D.[24]
Pella G.
6-33-66-3
R128
Bagnis F.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-31-66-4
Pella G.
Varillas J.
1-66-36-2
Popyrin A.
Ymer M.
7-654-4
Ruusuvuori E.
Borges N.
6-16-4
Djere L.
Vukic A.
6-27-63
Wolf J.
Bublik A.
7-56-3
Kokkinakis T.
Bergs Z.
4-66-37-67
Mannarino A.
Shang J.
1-66-46-2
Halys Q.
Martinez P.
6-27-64
Mcdonald M.
Galan D.
6-46-2
Molcan A.
Thompson J.
6-24-66-3
Sonego L.
Thiem D.
7-676-2
Watanuki Y.
Paire B.
6-47-5
Etcheverry T.
Kotov P.
6-26-2
Daniel T.
Rinderknech A.
4-1
Humbert U.
Monfils G.
3-3
Carballes Baena R.
Zapata Miralles B.
6-03-0
Nakashima B.
Otte O.
7-636-3
Kovacevic A.
Munar J.
7-642-66-1
Struff J.
Fognini F.
6-45-76-4
Eubanks C.
Kudla D.
7-626-2
Nava E.
Isner J.
7-657-64
Lajovic D.
Murray A.
6-47-5
Huesler M.
Ramos A.
6-747-626-3
Wu Y.
Edmund K.
7-57-5
Ivashka I.
Altmaier D.
6-26-1
Barrere G.
Safiullin R.
6-43-66-3
Monteiro T.
Kubler J.
6-47-66
Lehecka J.
Coria F.
6-36-4
Garin C.
Giron M.
6-42-66-4
Gasquet R.
Oconnell C.
6-43-66-1
Fucsovics M.
Cachin P.
6-47-62