Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul — Paris Olympics Quarter-final

Paris Olympics · ATP · Quarter-final
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#3ATP
2162ELO
2102Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 29 July 2024
clay
Tommy Paul
USA9
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Alcaraz C.
6-3 7-6
Paul T.
Alcaraz C.
6792
Paul T.
3670

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 6-3 7-6 in the Paris Olympics quarter-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-4 7-5
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023-08-14Cincinnati MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3
2023-08-07Canada MastersQFhardTommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3
2023-03-20Miami MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardTommy Paul6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Alcaraz C.Paul T.
—
Serve
33
—
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (170 vs 130). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
93
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
99
87
Deciding sets·Even
100
98
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alcaraz C.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Paul T.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
9.3+216 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Clay Elo 1886
9.3Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
9.3
Surface form
7.1
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Prev. match
7.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
2.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Alcaraz C.Paul T.
Freshness·
—
91

Paul T.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast

Draw

Bronze
Musetti L.[11]
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
6-41-66-3
Final
Djokovic N.[1]
Alcaraz C.[2]
7-637-62
Semi-finals
Alcaraz C.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
6-16-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Musetti L.[11]
6-46-2
Quarter-finals
Musetti L.[11]
Zverev A.[3]
7-57-5
Djokovic N.[1]
Tsitsipas S.[8]
6-37-63
Alcaraz C.[2]
Paul T.[9]
6-37-67
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
Ruud C.[6]
6-46-786-3
R16
Ruud C.[6]
Cerundolo F.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Safiullin R.
6-46-2
Paul T.[9]
Moutet C.
7-656-3
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
Medvedev D.[4]
6-37-65
Djokovic N.[1]
Koepfer D.
7-56-3
Musetti L.[11]
Fritz T.[7]
6-47-5
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Baez S.[12]
7-56-1
Zverev A.[3]
Popyrin A.
7-56-3
R32
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Evans D.
6-16-2
Popyrin A.
Wawrinka S.
6-47-5
Musetti L.[11]
Navone M.
7-626-3
Fritz T.[7]
Draper J.
6-736-36-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Griekspoor T.
6-17-63
Struff J.
Moutet C.
W/O
Djokovic N.[1]
Nadal R.
6-16-4
Paul T.[9]
Mensik J.
6-36-1
Koepfer D.
Arnaldi M.
3-66-26-1
Baez S.[12]
Hassan B.
6-23-67-63
Cerundolo F.
Humbert U.[10]
7-56-757-5
Medvedev D.[4]
Ofner S.
6-26-2
Zverev A.[3]
Machac T.
6-37-5
Ruud C.[6]
Vavassori A.
4-66-46-3
Safiullin R.
Etcheverry T.
6-07-61
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
Marterer M.
6-06-1
R64
Koepfer D.
Raonic M.
6-727-657-61
Alcaraz C.[2]
Habib H.
6-36-1
Evans D.
Echargui M.
6-24-66-2
Safiullin R.
Tabilo A.[15]
6-46-4
Zverev A.[3]
Munar J.
6-26-2
Medvedev D.[4]
Hijikata R.
6-26-1
Popyrin A.
Jarry N.[16]
6-37-65
Wawrinka S.
Kotov P.
6-16-1
Moutet C.
Nagal S.
6-22-67-5
Djokovic N.[1]
Ebden M.
6-06-1
Machac T.
Zhang Z.
6-24-66-2
Marterer M.
Lajovic D.
6-36-766-3
Nadal R.
Fucsovics M.
6-14-66-4
Baez S.[12]
Monteiro T.
6-46-3
Draper J.
Nishikori K.
6-16-4
Ruud C.[6]
Daniel T.
7-56-1
Cerundolo F.
Barrios Vera T.
6-26-1
Struff J.
Cabral F.
6-26-2
Etcheverry T.
Seyboth Wild T.
7-676-2
Griekspoor T.
Tsitsipas P.
6-26-3
Humbert U.[10]
Marozsan F.
6-36-2
Auger Aliassime F.[13]
Giron M.
6-16-4
Tsitsipas S.[8]
Bergs Z.
7-661-66-1
Arnaldi M.
Fils A.[14]
6-47-67
Hassan B.
Eubanks C.
6-46-2
Musetti L.[11]
Monfils G.
6-16-4
Navone M.
Borges N.
6-26-2
Fritz T.[7]
Bublik A.
6-46-4
Vavassori A.
Martinez P.
6-44-66-4
Ofner S.
Haase R.
7-56-2
Mensik J.
Shevchenko A.
6-36-4
Paul T.[9]
Darderi L.
6-36-4